That Gigantic Sucking Noise …

by Sam Huntington

China has been as busy as a little bee flitting around the globe, making friends, asserting interests in other people’s business, intimidating neighbors, threatening others with their new navy, demanding access to oil reserves that clearly do not belong to them. They are even beginning to establish military advisory groups in some countries, providing arms and munitions to others, and selling modern military equipment to their new friends.

The Chinese appear involved in every region, on every continent, including the Middle East. Long before the scheduled withdrawal of US/Coalition forces from Afghanistan, China sent Zhou Yongkang to meet with President Hamid Karzai. This is significant because Mr. Zhou is China’s second most senior politburo member, China’s Security Chief, and China’s first high-ranking official to visit Afghanistan in almost fifty years.

Why is China interested in Middle Eastern politics? I believe China has a keen interest in widening Chinese markets, and is hoping for a western failure in its war on terror. Angry or frustrated radicals are always in the market for more arms and munitions. China doesn't mind terrorists, so long as Karzai precludes them from establishing terrorist training camps near the Chinese border; there is a small matter of some 20 million Muslims living in China, after all. This helps to explain why China has distanced itself from the west’s so-called war on terror.

China would also prefer not to see any permanent western military bases in Afghanistan —for obvious reasons.

China fears that a rapid draw down of NATO troops in Afghanistan could lead to a return to bickering among warlords and complex tribal alliances. Civil war among Afghanistan’s neighbors would not be in China’s long-range commercial interests, nor does it want to see a further destabilization of Pakistan.

While notoriously reluctant to dirty its hands in such matters (above), withdrawal of coalition forces in 2014 may leave China no other choice. The problem is that China isn't quite as sophisticated as everyone thinks. It cannot compete at the same level as the United States in terms of nation building, economic aid, military assistance, and peacekeeping. China simply has no tradition for such endeavors, and in order to find success in Afghanistan, it must rely upon its regional surrogate: Pakistan.

The development of closer ties between China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan is a clear sign that China is seeking an enlarged political role after 2014. Our evidence appears to be these two things: in February, China agreed to a trilateral meeting process with Afghanistan and Pakistan, which increases China’s role in that region, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Central Asian Security, and Economic Bloc admitted Afghanistan as an observer in June 2012.

Mr. Zhou's trip to Afghanistan was no coincidence; as one of China’s senior politburo members, Zhou went to Afghanistan to discuss terrorism, border security, and to announce a new deal for China’s Ministry of Public Security to “train, fund, and equip Afghani police officers.” This demonstrates China’s goal of becoming a significant player in Afghanistan’s unsettling culture, and its commercial interests.

Encouraging China to take a more active role in the affairs of the Middle East has been the goal of US diplomats for quite a number of years. These diplomats naturally say that once China gets its nose under the tent, it isn't likely to withdraw any time soon. Good. That gigantic sucking noise you are about to hear is the sound of Afghanistan and Pakistan helping itself to China’s treasury.