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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
The West Could Have Prevented The Russo-Ukrainian War, But Chose Not To
"President Biden and our European allies closed every off-ramp for Russia while misleading Ukraine into thinking we would defend it."
-- John Davidson, The Federalist
Russia Directly Threatens Sweden and Finland
As Putin prepares to take Kiev and set up an illegitimate puppet government, his foreign ministry threatened Sweden and Finland (and implicitly, all NATO nations):
Russia threatened “military and political consequences” against Finland and Sweden on Friday if they attempted to join NATO.
Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned against other countries attempting to join NATO after Russia started a war with Ukraine Thursday.
“Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries and their accession to NATO can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political consequences,” Zakharova said in a viral clip of a press conference. (The Hill)
What Now?
President Biden avers "Putin will be a pariah on the international stage."
No he won't. Russia will continue being an influential international player. And Vlad will fund it all by orienting Russia to the east and becoming China's gas station, removing the last shreds of western leverage over neo-czarist Russia.
Sumantra Maitra wrote an excellent and wide-ranging essay in The National Interest. He repeats the ad nauseum call for European nations to open their wallets and get serious about training serious militaries to seriously take up their own defense.
The era of peace is over. Hard power is in, soft theories are out. Gazillions spent in universities should be rechanneled to research on deterrence and military. If this invasion does not lead to Europeans paying for their own defense and increasing hard power, then the future is going to be dark. America cannot take the security burden of both the Atlantic and Pacific, with a rich continent doing nothing for its own security.
I agree with the author, but that drum is broken from decades of futile banging. Anyway, it's too late. Olde Europe is in a demographic death spiral, too turned in on itself and its disorienting cocktail of progressive blue sky dreams and me-first shoulder shrugs to events around them.
I don't know how much blood and treasure we should be expending on people who won't help themselves, or stated more charitably, who increasingly do not share our values and goals.
I'm not so sure that this could have been prevented. Putin has been pretty clear about his intentions over the years.....not that they have been well covered and analyzed by U.S. media.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be terribly surprised if Finland and/or Sweden were compelled to seek NATO membership, but to the invasion of Ukraine. They've been partnered with NATO forces for years in Afghanistan and Iraq. Membership would almost be a formaility.
SF,
ReplyDeleteI strongly agree with your last two paragraphs. We are in a different world from the post-WW2 world! In other words, a new reality.
I read this a few minutes ago and found it informative: Ukraine Isn't WW2 or WW3 - It's WW1, by Daniel Greenfield.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the author. I come from the realest camp of foreign policy. There are just too many situations right for conflict along borders all over the world. Most of those situations need to be left to the parties to find some kind of equilibrium. Outside interventions often just end up propping up and untenable situation.
DeleteAn example of this is, the Iraqi Kurds and turkey. Turkey obviously does not like Kurds because it is a threat to their territory, and they have grappled with Turkish terrorist groups. But, Iraqi Kurds and the Turks have hammered out some kind of modest vindy, and if I am not mistaken Turkey is the Iraqi Kurds biggest trading partner.
To me that article gets two basis premises wrong.
DeleteFirst that, “During the Cold War the independent Western republics faced off against Eastern Communist dictatorships in thrall to Moscow.”
The Cold war was one set of countries in thrall to the Soviet Union against another set of countries in thrall to the United States – the Warsaw Pact versus NATO. The only difference between one European country and another was which superpower the country owed allegiance to.
Second is that, “The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is yet another in a series of regional conflicts between two competing groups of nationalists over borders and territory.”
That scenario played out for eight years, but it was not what led to the invasion. The invasion was caused by the repeated refusal of the US to agree not to admit Ukraine to the anti-Russia military alliance that goes by the name of NATO. Such an admission would be precisely analogous to admitting Canada or Mexico to the Warsaw Pact, and it posed imminent threat to Russia’s national security.
Russia said for several years that if the US did not agree that Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO then Russia would take steps to prevent it from being admitted. Russia was not bluffing.
If canada wanted to join the warsaw pact, that would be a sign that American relations with Canada had broken down, and should be urgently attended to. Instead of trying to entice Ukraine, Russia has invaded instead. This is a clear demonstration of the difference between Russia and the West.
DeleteI think all the regulars here understand that Britain/America/the West is not perfect. Message received. But Russia's "coalision" is built on coercison in a way that Nato is not -- even when we recognise all the interventions the West has made in foreign affiars throughout the post-War era, still a NATO member can leave NATO if they want. I reject your framing of the two sides as symmetrical.
As Russia becomes more belligerent, it unfortunately becomes of question of "when" not "if" we choose to confront it.
And again jez misses the point. I'll try to be more specific in terms that even jez cannot misunderstand in his pursuit of proving someone else "wrong."
DeleteIf Russia wanted to install nuclear missiles in Canada or Mexico, a mere five minutes flight away from our major cities, we would be outraged and in major panic mode. In fact, when the Soviet Union did precisely that, by putting missiles in Cube, this nation went into a state of outright hysteria.
Or, as your last statement might say, we "became very belligerent."
We are putting missiles fave minutes flight away from Moscow and St. Petersburg, and we are insane enough to expect Russia to be okay with that. They are not.
Seems to me that American response to the Cuban missile crisis was pretty measured (credit where it's due to the soviets, too)... peak American hysteria/belligerence came earlier IMO (bay of pigs).
DeleteI see your point, but I don't think you can maintain your "balanced" outlook without overlooking a few important details about how the Russians conduct themselves.
Excellent read AOW and quite true.
ReplyDeleteSilverfiddle quoted, ""President Biden and our European allies closed every off-ramp for Russia while misleading Ukraine into thinking we would defend it."
-- John Davidson, The Federalist"
That is one of the saddest commentaries I have read to date. It is the kind of situation and assessment of it that brings tears to one's eyes.
Indeed. Our foreign policy fools at work
DeleteI shudder to think what that looser-in-chief or maybe fool-in- chief - they both fit - will say tomorrow night at the State of The Union Speech. That is if he can read the teleprompter and stop stuttering and fumbling. Friday when he announced sanctions and answered questions, he fumbled all over the place and my cheeky self could not help but get a good laugh at him otherwise I would go mad from just looking at that bumbling fool!
DeleteAs of a few minutes ago, all of my internet traffic has been routed through a Ukrainian VPN for the past 20 hours. If Russia is trying to cut Ukraine off from the world, they're sucking at it. I was actually watching currency exchange rates in real time last night when Moscow Monday morning bank hours opened and the Ruble dropped in value to 9/10ths of a US penny. When all Russian banks are totally exiled from SWIFT payment systems, it's not going to matter because the Ruble will be to toxic to trade with anyway. Like Biden or not (and I don't) the reality is that a globalist finance approach to choking Russia started working just by alerting world markets that that was the intent. It will keep working. Stay in Ukraine or run like a scalded dog like they did from the useful parts of Georgia, the Russian ruble lost over a third of it's twins in value over the last 7 years in literally seconds. Russia can't jail all of its anti-war protesters. I'm betting on a Russian general blowing Putin's brains out before this war gets sexy.
DeleteThe Ukrainians took out a column of tanks headed for Kyiv. There's widespread reports that the Russian troops are having massive logistics issues with fuel and ammunition supplies. They still haven't restored water services to Crimea. The Russians are doing an amazing job of humiliating themselves. They seem to be unaware of Ukrainian rivers that have been there for millenia. Apparently geography didn't enter Russian war planning. Reminds me of the time Hitler wrote a book giving Russia 14 years notice that the Nazis were coming for the Ukraine, and the Russians forgot to look at a map.
Now Kosovo wants their breakaway piece of Serbia to join NATO.
Putin is many things. "Genius" isn't one of them.
*lost over a third of its gains in value... Dern autocorrect
DeleteRussia has cash reserves roughly the size of the state of Mississippi's GDP to play with as it too drops in international exchange value.
DeletePlay stupid games, win stupid prizes now has a picture for the dictionary.
Look what this guy wrote in my comments about Russians not wanting war and being ashamed:
Delete"Elizabeth,You do know,I presume that Russia is not a godless place anymore,some 58% of it’s people are orthodox and some 40% actually go to church Can you say that for the ukranians or even your own people.The last time I looked
the USA was becoming more marxist than Russia ever was and religion was dying fast.Perhaps you know differently.
If you had any compassion with the people in the Dombass you might see that Putin has little choice.We gave him none by bordering his country with WMD and we are still goading him into a fight with the whole world bar China
You may think differently if the USA was surrounded by nukes drawn from the rest of the world."
And my simple response was just this:
"Putin always had a choice, and he chose wrong."
I could not believe what I read. Wow. Probably a fake name and some Russian sympathizer that gets their Vodka right from Putin. I left it there because people should know how ignorant some are in this world. No wonder we have BRANDON as POTUS!
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
ReplyDeleteThat's why you should always plan on getting punched in the mouth...
:P
When the dill and vodka makes you think you can ignore reality
DeleteTake away a few rare and exceptional chess players, and there's no compelling reason to believe the average Russian IQ is over 65. We're talking about people who tried to make communism work for longer than 20 minutes.
DeleteFor laughs, look at the steep drop in value of the Russian ruble against the world's strongest / most stable currency, the Kuwaiti Dinar, at around 6am Moscow time.
DeleteIt rallied back this afternoon, a little, but is still pretty much a freefall. At this rate, even Bitcoin won't have enough decimal places to convey how worthless Russian money is.
Globalism for the win, baby.
The fact that Putin has not announced that he's changed the name of his country to "America's Bitch" is a clear sign that he lacks clarity and situational awareness.
DeleteHe's going to try to sell his oil to China's east coast if he can get it there by hot air balloon.
DeleteWas Biden the boxer standing on one hand?
DeleteMeanwhile, back in Colorado...
Delete...Mr Mackey demonstrates the "preparations" necessary for successful globalism.
DeleteRussia could throw a tantrum, bomb Ukraine to rubble and go home (like they did in Chechnya and northern Georgia) but that still leaves their goals unobtainable and their military still a laughingstock.
Delete$100 says Putin gets his brains blown out by any general that wants to run Rosneft.
Rosneft is 20% owned by BP / Amoco
DeleteDon't F with the Peaky Blinders
Then lets see BP / Amoco field its' own army.
Delete...cuz the real Peaky Blinders aren't signing up for America's any more.
DeleteThey remember what happened to them in France.
DeleteBP's CFO gives a bunch of Russian generals a wad of real cash, Putin's brains become part of the red stucco in the walls of the Kremlin. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.
DeleteI would love to see that scenario play out. Putin must have an incredible amount of very sophisticated security, but his generals have got to be wanting to take him down.
DeleteThen, 5 minutes after Putin's assassination and the Russian generals pull back and declare peace with Europe, Europe goes back to sleep until the next crisis fights them in the ass that they weren't prepared for
Putin is more of a recluse than Howard Hughes. He has to be, for security reasons. He can't even go outside without all the streets in Moscow getting cleared of people first.
DeleteFew people in the world are up all night in fear for their lives more than that dink in the Kremlin.
DeleteSwitzerland Drops Neutrality In Rare Move To Freeze Russian Assets
ReplyDeleteDamn. Now Russia can't even move its pocket lint around in its own pants
Delete$10 billion in Swiss banks is a little over a half of one percent of Russia's GDP in US dollars. By the fact that Russian rubles lost over a third of their value over the weekend and today, the Swiss probably acted to save whatever stale breadcrumbs they could lol
Deletelol! Are they going to seize Chinese assets, too?
DeleteI suspect that with Biden in office, the Yuan will soon be the Global Reserve currency.
Oh noes. The Chinese Yuan is almost worth 16 cents US. Rhey_ve not been this close to 16 cents since 2013.
Delete:)
DeleteAfter Canada's debacle of shutting down payments to Truckers in Montreal, Crypto will take off. All those plans for digital national currency's will be moot, as people flock to currency neutrality and transactions that can't be blocked by capricious national leaders and governments.
DeleteAny crypto on sale for pocket lint?
DeleteGold, Silver, and Bitcoin. That's the future.
DeleteWanna buy a Bitcoin? Deposit x ounces of gold/silver.
DeleteDollar bills will be worth their equivalent weight in pocket lint.
Delete@ TC,
Delete"move its pocket lint around"
Ever heard of a cascade effect? I can assure you that world wide large banks keep track of what the Swiss banks do.
Bitcoin will divide out to eight decimal places. You have to go to seven decimal places to convert a ruble to a teensy weensy piece of a Bitcoin. Most Bitcoin exchange markets don't even bother with national currencies smaller than six decimal places.
Delete@Warren
DeleteWell aware of cascade effects. The Ruble is a junk currency, and Russia's credit rating is junk status as well. It won't be a month before Russians are drinking the antifreeze out of their Lada Grantas to get high.
The globalists are forcing the Ukraine to join the EU. Poor b*stards!
DeleteAs long as Zelenskyy wears the right color of knockoff Adidas track suits, who cares? Gangstas gonna gang.
DeleteIndeed.
Delete"Your money's no good here," has taken on a whole new meaning.
Delete..especially after Justin Trudeau started a run on Canadian banks.
DeleteNeed to move to a 666-bit encrypted RFID paywave chip implanted in the hand or forehead. It will make it easier to track who can buy bread and who deserves to.
DeleteProvided that the could survive the initial EMP.
DeleteHope you've got a Faraday helmet for your forehead.
Delete@TC, What makes think those accounts are held as currency instead of gold?
Delete???
DeleteBloomberg: Jan 12, 2021 · A multi-year drive to reduce exposure to U.S. assets has pushed the share of gold in Russia’s $583 billion international reserves above dollars for the first time on record.
DeleteYou may want to buy Rubles.
DeleteNah, I have enough chat rock in my driveway to bankrupt Russia.
DeleteBitcoin's up 6.3% today. DJIA's down 2.1%.
DeleteBeamish's Pokemon NFT's are even.
Delete:P
DeleteBold move removing Russia's Swift access.
ReplyDeleteDon't be surprised if you see the lights go out in one or more regions of the US and or Europe.
Go Ukraine!
every ATM in Russia
DeleteThey should have done it last week!
DeleteI sincerely hope Vlad's cheese hasn't slipped off the cracker. I can see this getting very ugly between now and end game. I don't see him as someone who does climbdowns.
DeletePutin bombs to rubble what he can't have, usually.
DeleteI'd be pushing NATO to fast-track the admission of Finland, Sweden, Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance if I were Biden. Kosovo. Bosnia-Herzgovia too. Maybe even Santa Claus' North Pole too for the lulz. Clown Putin at every turn. As we have so far, but worse.
RE: "Olde Europe is in a demographic death spiral, too turned in on itself and its disorienting cocktail of progressive blue sky dreams and me-first shoulder shrugs to events around them."
ReplyDeleteFor the first time since 1515, Switzerland changed its neutrality
stance. Wowsers!
Yeah. I'm impressed. I don't know if the Euros are legitimately scared witless, or if it is US arm twisting (if we still have that kind of leverage left)...
DeleteI am praying this ends with the death of Vlad and a bright new day, but this is far from over, and we're in for some gut-wrenching twists and turns.
If the Russians do take out Putin, I reckon they wouldn't do it in public, they'll perform an orderly transition using a lookalike standin. (Like with Yeltsin?) Watch out for an abrupt change of policy and appointment of a successor.
DeleteI am a little disappointed in Biden. When asked if he thought the Russians would launch a nuclear war, he said "no." He should have said "no, because they're pussies."
DeleteTry pushing anything green outside of a super wealthy enclave after looking at electric bills. I think they should make a slap John Kerry site. Seriously people are dying in a war energy is through the roof and he is talking climate change.
ReplyDeleteBeakerambo needs adult supervision as he tried to go to the Ukraine. A combination at extreme violence and beautiful women have proved enticing to the incoherent warrior. He is heroic but nobody understands him. It took Gweneth Paltrow a month to figure out he is incoherent. She just used him for his looks, how he feels about it remains unknown.
Poor thing. But I guess that being taking advantage of by Gweneth Paltrow is better than being taken advantage of by a Grizzly Bear or Bill Clinton.
DeleteIt's total idiocy all the way up and down the line.
DeleteDid you see this? FEMA Encourages Survivors of a Nuclear Holocaust To Mask, Socially Distance
Or even inside the elite enclave. San Diego now has the highest electric rate in the state of California, and that is quite an accomplishment. We started some sort of "cooperative" to buy "green energy" and were promised that in addition to saving the planet we would be saving money. It appears we are doing neither.
DeleteSan Diego have now achieved the dubious distinction of being the city with the highest cost of living in the US, having passed San Farncisco in that regard due to our electric rates.
Words..many words.. the world sits back with their munchies and a couple of brewskis in their easy chairs as the Russian line up for miles with their war machines preparing to slaughter with weapons beyond imagination.. vaporizers so there will be no bodies, cluster bombs that will do horrendous damage...what is wrong with this picture as hundreds of thousands await their end,
ReplyDeleteIt's partially our fault. Bill Clinton promised we'd protect them against the Russians if they gave back the nucs the Russians left behind in the collapse.
ReplyDeleteIt IS our fault. Totally. We buddyed up to them, whispered in their ear, so that the well connected westerners could get in there and make a lot of money. Georgia, Crimea, and now this. You would think smart people would start seeing a pattern and trust but verify, when it comes to statements from the United States government
DeleteSecond largest city Kharkiv I under attack in Ukraine. So sad. They targeted a government building to dismantle the government.
ReplyDeletehere more war crimes
Fox took the link down and I do not know why. Here sadly off CNN ...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/kharkiv-street-fight-russia-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html
Brace yourself. It is going to get very, very ugly.
DeleteI remember my grandparents describing Russian invaders in world war II. Not pretty.
DeleteGo read what the Russians did in Afghanistan. Absolutely horrible. Dropping toys for little children to pick up the head bombs inside them and other devices meant to name and dismember.
You could almost excuse such tactics if you were doing it on your own territory to defend your nation against attackers, but these are people who go out and do this in other countries. Russians don't play.
You are correct Silverfiddle....
DeleteWatch here if you have the time it is devestating.
Ok I need more coffee... here ...
ReplyDeletehttps://politicsrewritten.blog/2022/03/01/caution-heartbreaking-footage-injured-little-girl/
I remember Vietnam, and look at pictures of Iraq, a nation that did not have "weapons of mass destruction," and I cannot become all that outraged about what I see in Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteThink what Fallujah looked like after we were done with it. 500,000 Ukranian refugees? How many millions from Iraq and Libya alone? Sorry, take your outrage somewhere else.
An outrage is an outrage, regardless of what other outrage you compare it to.
DeleteI'm not comparing outrages. I'm pointing out that this is what war is. War is death and destruction regardless of who is waging it. We wage war, and have no right to get all outraged when someone else does it.
DeleteI don't need your lectures on war, death, and destruction. I heard it from my grandparents personal stories, and I ended up seeing it first hand myself.
DeleteYou are making an argument for indifference, and you are entitled to it, but you are no position to tell anyone else what we have a right to do or not do. Yes, what we did in the middle east was an outrage, that doesn't prevent me from calling this and outrage also
Spot the Russian troll farm...
Delete:)
ReplyDelete