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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
Technology Review - Coronavirus
Below are a few excerpts:
What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?
There are basically three ways to stop the Covid-19 disease for good.
One involves extraordinary restrictions on free movement and assembly, as well as aggressive testing, to interrupt its transmission entirely. That may be impossible now that the virus is in over 100 countries.
The second is a vaccine that could protect everyone, but it still needs to be developed.
A third is potentially effective but horrible to consider: just wait until enough people get it.
If the virus keeps spreading, eventually so many people will have been infected and (if they survive) become immune that the outbreak will fizzle out on its own as the germ finds it harder and harder to find a susceptible host. This phenomenon is known as herd immunity.See also: Your Biggest Questions Answered
I also recommend A fiasco in the making? The essay has been targeted as too cavalier about the situation, but that is a mischaracterization. The article is five days old now, a lifetime in this era of fast-paced events, but I recommend it because it is authored by a Stanford professor of medicine who performs a sober calculation of the math, considers various hypotheticals, and takes the position throughout that, based on current date, we just don't know.
The UK tried the herd immunity approach. The UK abandoned it because of the devastation.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the time interval during with the UK tried herd immunity was too short for any success.
One source I used:
Britain Drops Its Go-It-Alone Approach to Coronavirus: Johnson government admits its strategy of allowing the virus to spread and build up immunity was a failure but stops short of mandatory controls.
I'm not in the know, but I believe our government was persuaded to change tack by recent predictive models, not because of the outcome of its previous approach (as you say, it was too early to judge results either way). I think we were correct to change course.
DeleteIMO, if restrictions and a timely vaccine fail, then herd immunity will be the default solution.
ReplyDeleteSF,
ReplyDeleteI forgot to compliment you on this blog post, which is excellent.
Thanks, but I didn't do much besides pull some information together.
DeleteWe are sorely lacking sober analysis.
Also, I have no patience for trolls. Just to let you know, I am zapping off-topic pinheads, and when I do, I do it permanently so there is no stain left.
Please. The government has invested far too much ' credibility' into creating a panic and a need for draconian measures and funding, funding, and ever more and increased funding. If this peters out, they'll applaud themselves and call for more funding. If it becomes a true pandemic, they'll actually need the funding, and for once it won't go to useless deep state virologists. But my money is on the declare victory approach to cover collaapsing the US economy over funding preventative measures for a common cold.
DeleteThat was a great link, btw. Its importaant to keep in mind just how much we don't know.
DeleteYou don't think cv19 warrants any response beyond standard cold remedies?
DeleteYou don't think Shutting down the American economy is an over-reaction? Who's going to supply all those desperately needed test kits and respirators if workers aren't allowed to work? It's a good thing not all 50 state governors sent all their workers home.
DeleteI've got nosympathy at all for Mayor Chicken Little deBlassio who complains baout a federal absence yet does nothing to help himself but shutter his cities workshops.
DeleteAn iverwhelmed health service wouldn't shut down the economy? I don't know how much has been shut down in america. Some sectors are more affected than otherd but here, people still work, jus from home if possible.
DeleteFrom this link in the blog post comes this encouraging information:
ReplyDeleteSo far, it appears the rate of mutation in coronavirus is less than half the rate of eight to 10 times per month for influenza.
We also read this bad news from that same link:
DeleteBut the solution that saves the most lives is a vaccine that provides immunity. That will probably take another 18 months to develop, and there’s no telling yet how effective it might be.
For those who haven't seen it, delivered without over-talking commentary, courtesy of leftwing loon site Raw Story...
ReplyDeletePresident Trump's "Vicious" attack on an NBC Reporter
Trump is visciously attacked in virtually EVERY press conference. Why should he spare a reporter's reputation? They certainly don't try and spare his.
DeleteI do miss Sarah Sanders but not Jim Acosta. Good trade off as only one will be a governor one day.
ReplyDeleteIf true, this is very bad news...
ReplyDeleteFOX News: San Fran Homeless Testing Positive for COVID-19 Placed in Trailers, RVs, Hotels: ‘They can’t be quarantined because there is not enough places to quarantine them’.
The weather is not freezing out there. If the government officials had any brains, they would build a camp outside of the city.
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