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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Democrat Press Hoping for a Downturn


Silverfiddle Rant!
One of my favorite Three Stooges episodes opens with them working for a pest extermination company run by a hilarious, politically incorrect stereotype of a 1930's German immigrant.

He tells them to get out and get busy.  Moe protests and says, there's no work, "if they ain't got ants, they ain't got ants."

The German owner puffs himself up, "Zen you giff them ants, and mice, and cockroaches!  Now get busy!"

Sounds a lot like our Infotainment Media Complex, doesn't it?  "No bad news?  We'll give them bad news!"

Issue & Insights asks the question...
Anyone Notice That Trump’s Economy Keeps Beating Expectations?

All the smart kids and "experts" in the press have been talking recession since President Trump was elected.
Last August, the liberal “explanatory journalism” site Vox.com headlined an article “Why everybody’s worried about a recession again.”

In December 2018, the Washington Post ran a piece headlined: “A recession is coming, Trump will make it so much worse.”

That article reported that “virtually every independent forecaster foresees a slowdown once the sugar rush of Trump’s tax cuts wears off in the next year or so. And in a recent survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal, more than half predicted that we’d have a full-blown recession by 2020.”

Three days into 2017, PBS ran a column titled: “I’m predicting an economic recession in 2017. Are you ready?”

Around the same time, CBS Marketwatch posted an opinion piece warning that the “Next recession will hit during Trump’s first two years.”
Contrast that with coverage during the Obama years, when that president brought us the worst recovery on record, an accomplishment made more spectacular by the economic iron law that the harder the crash, the bigger the bounce.  The steepest part of the recovery curve comes early, then levels off. Economic growth under President Trump is remarkable for the fact that steep gains are coming eight years after the crash.

Here's how the press covered Obama's sputtering, uneven recovery, that saw millions of discouraged Americans leaving the workforce:
Then, the press was all about “green shoots” and economists kept predicting the economy was poised to lift off. Strong growth was “right around the corner,” they kept saying, and soon we’d see the fruits of Obama’s tax-and-spend-and-regulate economic policies. Yet actual results routinely come in “unexpectedly” worse. GDP growth was below forecast every single year Obama was in the White House.
Please go read the entire short article and tell us, What say you?

66 comments:

  1. I think the media places undue empahsis on politics in general. I don't think the transition from Obama to Trump has had all that much effect on economic performance: https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/obamas-2009-recovery-act-kicked-off-over-10-years-of-economic-growth/

    I understand that the Forbes article has the tone of an Obama apologist, but a) the data are interesting regardless, and b) that tone only makes sense if there is a pro-Trump narrative in place for it to answer. Is it not generally understood (rightly or wrongly) that the economy is growing more under Trump? I have to say, that was my assumption prior to looking at any numbers, and it's certainly what I would expect to happen after suddenly relaxing a bunch of environmental regulations. If I wanted to create a boom, I'd do what Trump did.
    If Forbes' data is reliable, my question is why didn't the economy uptick a lot harder?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chuck Jones is a famous Obama apologists, and he is good at cherry picking.

      It is endlessly "interesting" and fascinating to highlight various aspects of the data. When you start comparing to "last three years" etc, you know you're in for a custom-made comparison.

      Wages that were flat under Obama have grown under Trump, and the size of the labor force has grown as much in three years under Trump as it did in 8 years under Obama.

      Obama's unemployment rate would have been much worse had it not been for millions removing themselves from the workforce, and therefor removed from the unemployment calculus.

      Delete
    2. I can see why data close to the crash are difficult to compare with the current situation.

      I agree that Obama's administration was not above sugar-coating his interpretation of the unemployment data, but his unemployment rate didn't approach the 42% claimed by Trump during his campaign. Has Trump switched to using a less flattering, more intuitive statistic since he took over?

      Delete
    3. And the labor participation rate had remained fairly constant. Of course, the BLS May be part of the scary “deep state”.......

      Delete
    4. I make no defense of President Trump's many wild claims.

      This blog post is about press coverage and how they've been talking up a recession since President Trump was elected.

      Delete
  2. It's hard to believe you have, apparently IGNORED catastrophic, CATACLYSMIC L_O_S_S_E_S of about SIX-THOUSAND points on the DOW since it reached its all time high pushing THIRTY-THOUSAND just a month ago.

    Why the abrupt, highly DRAMATIC downturn?

    "Everyone" seems to be blaming "The Virus," but might it not have as much or more to do with Machiavellian Manipulation by President Trump's ruthless, incredibly powerful enemies, since this is a vitally important Election Year?

    If you want to dismiss that as a mere "CONSPIRACY THEORY," please go right ahead, but I for one don't believe in COINCIDENCES anymore than you believe in nefarious PLOTTING behind the scenes by The Enemy Within.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stocks are volatile. Don't forget the steep drop in late 2018 -- caused by the trade war? -- not much better than the current downturn. Why is the virus (a much bigger deal than the trade war) in your view insufficient to explain it?

      Delete
    2. Franco,
      There is nothing whatsoever that you or I can do about those stock market losses. But there are a few things that I can do to protect myself from this damned virus: limiting social contacts and stocking up on essentials (the latter I do often in the winter, anyway, because occasionally we get locked in for 1-2 weeks here should a major snowstorm hit).

      With regard to the market, I personally haven't lost anything because I haven't sold anything. My situation would, of course, be different if I relied almost exclusively on dividends for my income.

      As I see it, this virus is real, not exclusively Machiavellian Manipulation, although that is clearly a factor in much of the media reporting.

      Delete
    3. Hi, Jez,

      We've never seen anything remotely LIKE the relentless, record-setting losses of the past two weeks that have been averaging more than a THOUSAND POINTS a DAY.

      I'm one of the Lucky Ones, i suppose, because I am close to 80 years of age, have little time left, and could afford to lose fully HALF of what I was worth just two weeks ago, and still be able to maintain my current, very satisfactory lifestyle.

      Right now my NAV is down about 20%. Not good, but at least tolerable –– for me now.

      The market is DOWN again today –– more than 1,700 points. It's just over TWENTY-ONE THOUSAND right now. Only two weeks ago it was getting very close to THIRTY-THOUSAND.

      There is nothing "normal" about THIS steep a series of relentless declines. The "bottom" appears to have dropped out altogether, and we appear to be in FREEFALL.

      As the incrdibly rude and vulgar bumper stickers have been saying in this country for at least twenty years, "SHIT HAPPENS!"

      It does, indeed, –– and always when one least expects it.

      HOWEVER, I've been deriving comfort and strength from these words of St. Teresa of Avila for more than sixty years:

      Let nothng disturb thee,
      Nothing affright thee..
      All things are passing.
      God never changeth.
      Patient Endurance attaineth to all things.
      iWhom God possesseth
      in nothing is wanting.
      Alone God sufficeth.


      ~ St. Teresa of Avil, lines written in her brevity in the 1500's, as translated by te 19th-century American poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.

      It may be hard for modern-day, atheistic "rationalists" to comprehend, but I believe that ultimately Everything Happens for the Best.

      "Even though He SLAY me, yet will i trust in Him."

      Delete
    4. Franco,
      We've never seen anything remotely LIKE the relentless, record-setting losses of the past two weeks that have been averaging more than a THOUSAND POINTS a DAY.

      According to points, certainly. I wonder about the percentage drops.

      Delete
    5. I did a quick check of the percentages:

      12% in 1929

      20% in mid-2008

      3% in 2020 so far, since February. I wonder if that percentage is correct.

      Delete
    6. Seems more like 30% drop according to my own calculations (instead of Google blurbs).

      Delete
    7. No argument that the current drop (27%) is sharper and more sudden than the 16% drop that was spread out over Q4 2018. But my point is that the 2018 drop was in response to a much smaller threat; I don't think 2020 is out of proportion.

      Also, bare in mind the DOW tracks the largest companies, which are almost by definition the ones most sensitive to international signals.

      Delete
    8. Yes, Jez. We've certainly plunged deeply into "BEAR MARKET" TERRITORY! ;-)

      And I've sustained paper losses since February 19th that have all but wiped out the considerable gains I'd made since Mr. Trump took office.

      It's rather like tripping suddenly while out on a hike, and falling off a precipice into a rockye ravine.

      All i cn sy righ now is O_____U_____C_____H_____!

      But I could see several months ago that we were overdue for some sort of Market CORRECTION. I just never thought it would be THIS severe.

      Lots of diffrent factors at work, of course. It ISN'T just the VIRUS. I see politically-motivated Machiavellian Machinations in the mix. The TIMING is just too convenint and advantageous to the Left for something like this to be merely accidental or purely coincidental.

      Nothing to do but grit one's teeth, clench one's jaw, and carry on as well as we ossibly can, of course.

      It's always possible that a period of involuntary austerity might help refine one's outlook and improve one's cheracter. Disaster after all HAS been known to bring out the BEST in people.

      Sorry! I'm guilty of being a born optometrist, I guess. };^]>

      Delete
    9. I don't see a conspiracy, but I do see how Bush and Obama created moral hazards, handing our money and stuffing corporate pockets every time the stock market squeals after some catastrophic event.

      The fact that the majority of everyone's wealth and retirement is in the hands of stock manipulators and global finance shysters makes my mind turn to conspiracies...

      Delete
  3. The economy has been expanding for the past eleven years.....it can’t expand forever. There are so many factors that play into how the economic landscape reacts, only fools and charlatans claim a single influencer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CI,
      It is absolutely true that there is no one single influencer.

      Delete
    2. I'm not a gloom and doom guy but there were recession indicators prior to the virus-which now takes us into unknown territories. From the speech last night, it's obvious we have no navigation plans.

      Funny thing, Democrats are actually trying to help their very opposition party save themselves from the potential economic storm (thus helping Rs in their reelections) yet getting slapped away.

      Not sure hoe it'll pan out but I foresee plenty of socialism for the airlines and struggling golf courses.

      Delete
    3. I recommend making zerohedge.com a daily read, it’s pretty Trump friendly, but has a lot of market news. It too has been forecasting a downturn for quite some time now.

      Delete
    4. I have been reading zero hedge for years, and I like them, but they always focus on the downside possibilities. I wouldn't call them "Trump friendly." They are pretty consistently skeptical libertarian.

      Market Watch is alarmist leftists.

      Delete
    5. Ronald,

      I understand what you are saying, but our nation is in a bad state when congress cooperating with a president of a different party for the good of the nation is considered "helping their very opposition party."

      Delete
    6. Silver... you're exactly correct in your comment about "helping the opposition." But what can we expect when the non elected class makes that opposition a purity test for votes?

      I seem to remember folks like Howard Baker and Tip O'Niell being willing to cross the aisle and vote with opposing parties and presidents. Now? not so much.

      Delete
    7. Yes, our nation is indeed in a bad state. No argument there.

      Delete
    8. Dave Miller, I think Tip O'Neil may have been around the end of that era. I seem to recall Tom DeLay with a goal of rather than work with Dems, just destroy them. Bill Frist didn't help matters with his threat of eliminating the filibuster if he didn't get his way. Dems may have cemented any hopes of resolving anything with ACA. If there ever was any hope, that got shot down over Merrick Garland or allowing any Obama pick or for that matter, the entire era of Mitch obstruction. And now we have Trump with Mitch playing Lucy holding the football.

      I've never seen the level of divisiveness or a president stoking it on a regular basis.

      Delete
    9. 20 Reasons Why Barack Obama Was the Most Divisive President In History



      Conservatives fire back at Obama, say he sowed the division that led to Trump


      1. Call all opponents of same-sex marriage bigots
      2. Call the Pro-Life movement a "War on Women"
      3. Call all immigration enforcement advocates racists
      4. Call the GOP the enemy of Hispanics


      Delete
    10. Though I agree (to varying degrees) with points 1-4........I thought that “This blog post is about press coverage and how they've been talking up a recession since President Trump was elected.

      Delete
    11. In stark contrast to today’s presser, Tump in 2013: “Leadership: Whatever happens, you’re responsible. If it doesn’t happen, you’re responsible.”

      Delete
    12. CI,

      I was trying to reach some comity with Dave Miller (easy to do, he's a good guy and will concede a point) and with Ronald Ward (almost impossible).

      Ronald had to take my goodwill and then press a ridiculously partisan point that boiled down to "My political heroes are all-wise, perfect gods, and Republicans are to blame for everything and Orange Man Bad!"

      Boring. I'm not even arguing with him. When someone posts third-grade level partisan BS, I can either delete it, or I can post a few links giving an opposing opinion and leave it at that.

      Delete
    13. Ronald,

      You posted your infantile partisan propaganda, and I posted a rebuttal.

      My advise to you: Leave it and press on. I will delete further mindless, off-topic propaganda. We're not a toilet stall wall at a Democrat hangout.

      Delete
    14. My advice re "Ronald" and ALL his mseable ilk:

      DELETE HIM on CoNTACT

      Why waste your "cyberbreath" on an obdurate partisan bigot?

      Delete
  4. Panic has a logic of its own. The fact that, in the UK, due to the coronavirus panic even toilet paper rolls have disappeared from the stores reminds me of a weird incident with toilet paper from my youth in socialist Yugoslavia. All of a sudden, a rumor started to circulate that there was not enough toilet paper in the stores. The authorities promptly issued assurances that there was enough toilet paper for the normal consumption, and, surprisingly, this was not only true but people mostly even believed it was true.

    However, an average consumer reasoned in the following way: I know there is enough toilet paper and the rumor is false, but what if some people take this rumor seriously and, in a panic, will start to buy excessive reserves of toilet paper, causing this way an actual lack of toilet paper? So I better go and buy reserves of it myself.

    It is even not necessary to believe that some others take the rumor seriously – it is enough to presuppose that some others believe that there are people who take the rumor seriously – the effect is the same, namely the real lack of toilet paper in the stores. Is something similar not going on in the UK (and also in California) today?


    Source: Frano's favorite philosopher...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At least toilet paper is not perishable, which marks an improvement over what British panic-buyers normally stock up on: bread and milk.

      Delete
    2. My advice re possible TOILET PAPER shortage:

      Start using The New York Times nd the Washington Post to win your butt.

      That's ALL those filthy rage are good for anyway.

      Buy a Rubbemaid Wastebasket, fill i twith these dirty rags, place it next to The John, and make the change PERMANENT.

      You'll save MONEY.

      Delete
  5. Now that the Pres of Brazil AND his attache have both tested positive for the virus, and were with Trump and Pence and Ivanka, etc., about five days ago, the Dems must be jumping with joy. Lots of shaking hands, turning the bathroom knob, sharing the salt shaker........oh, ya....here's a Downturn the Dems have been hoping for. Is it Pelosi who'd be in charge if both the Pres and VP were hospitalized?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Z,
      Dems must be jumping with joy

      And salivating!

      Delete
    2. Yes, Pelosi would be in charge.

      God help us!

      Delete
    3. He WILL, AOW! You can BANK on it.

      Everything happens for a purpose. God's purposes are no always congruent with our fondest hopes and dreams, BUT we have NO CHOICE but to TRUST in HIM –– especially when things look their worst.

      I feel deeply sorry fo those can't.

      Delete
    4. Now they're saying Brazil's pres tested NEGATIVE......according to his son, anyway. Interesting days. The Left is in an uproar that Trump hasn't been tested; NOW they care about his health? Imagine if he had been "Oh, SURE, HE gets a test, but WE DON"T!" oy

      Delete
    5. Z,
      It doesn't matter what Trump does or says. He's always wrong and bad.

      Delete
  6. Replies
    1. Seems like we're heading towards shutting down the US economy for a few months instead of allowing the virus to run its' course. I have a feeling that this is going to become a "regular thing" from here on out... it's easier to declare a panic and ask for handouts than get up and go to work every day.

      The MSM seems to have managed to panic & stampede Trump off a cliff...

      Delete
    2. DWZUP ONE-THOUSAND-NINE-HUNDRED-EIGHtY-FIVE TODAY FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2020.

      That's UP 1,985 points!


      Seesaw from ceiling to floor
      And back from the brink of disaster.
      The ups and downs are unlikely to end
      Till we kill the Chink Wuhan Flu faster.

      Delete
    3. Franco,
      A wild ride!

      At least the US Stock Market is closed for the weekend.

      Delete
    4. Well, the Left Media is screaming "Killer Virus, DO SOMETHING!" poor Donald Trump must make small symbolic sacrifices to their god or they scream "Incompetent, the End of Civilization!" and stampede the American people into a socialist dictatorship where the country shuts down, everybody gets a basic universal income, and nobody works.

      Delete
  7. AOW, I agree with what you said earlier. I will not liquidate. Note advice, just my view: it's uncomfortable to watch a downturn in markets, but I will rebalance to a position that is mostly equities over the coming weeks. I did the same thing in late 2008. I can’t guess the bottom but it is coming. In a couple months the virus will likely slow. Stocks are on sale, there is federal easing and a stimulus on the way. That is as good as it gets. The worst is mostly priced in. There may be a few more selloffs but we may be near the highs again by the end of the year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. KP,
      I'm not liquidating the bit I have either -- unless medical circumstances force me to do so (caregiver needed, for example).

      Delete
  8. FAVORITE BUMPER STICKERS:

    Living is Hazardous to Your Health.

    Life is a Terminal Disease!

    Security is mortal's Chiefest enemy

    ReplyDelete
  9. I think we need to all get optimistic again..STOP buying into the hysteria, the fear, the paranoia.
    The press conf. this morning should give hope; presidents of the best companies to help all there at the WH, volunteering parking lot space for testing drive thrus, Roche promising great speed in getting tests, etc etc etc. Optimism. Trump is right. We can fight this. NO doubt about it.

    ReplyDelete
  10. In the face of this horrendous virus pandemic disaster to the tenth power, Mexican cartels stand to make a bunch of money smuggling toilet paper into the United States. Maybe now, finally, we can be friends.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mustang,
      What is this toilet paper mania, anyway?

      Delete
    2. The Psychology of Buying Toilet Paper in a Crisis

      Apparently, there is something satisfying to the panicked mind about hauling something out of the store the size of a camper cabin.

      Delete
  11. Posted yesterday evening on my online neighborhood network:

    At 7:00pm, I will be tossing a single roll of toilet paper into the street directly outside of the...parking garage back exit. I will observe the ensuing battle from my balcony. If the spectacle is entertaining, I will raise my thumb. The victor will be then granted an additional two-ply roll. May the stars be aligned in your favor.

    At least somebody on the network has a sense of humor!

    ReplyDelete
  12. i HAVE TO WONDER JUST WHO'S SIDE THE lEFTIES ON ON!
    whenever I go to the Progressive's board to see what they are saying, I constantly see that they ALL are cheering for our President to Lose, and to Fail.
    Is this what we have come to? Is this what "partition" is all about?
    I really think that people such as them are Traitors to this country!
    I can not imagine that they actually have gone that far, but they have! I am totally ashamed of my fellow Americans that feel, and think that way!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The real Left, Jimmy Dore, Glenn Greenwald, Krystal Ball, Cenk Uger, etc. are rooting for the country. It's the hypocritical and intellectually bankrupt "establishment" Left that hates America.

      Delete
  13. Devin Nunes: ‘Media And The Left’ Are Putting The Country Into A Panic’ For ‘No Reason’

    Daily Caller

    by Scott Morefield

    Republican California Rep. Devin Nunes accused the “media and the left” of “putting the country into a panic” over the coronavirus pandemic. Appearing on Saturday night’s “Watters World,” Nunes drew from his own experience coming down with H1N1 to urge Americans to “remain calm.”

    “A lot of people are panicking,” Nunes told Fox News host Jesse Watters. “One guy sneezed. Someone has a runny nose.” The California congressman noted that most of this will be because of the oncoming Spring and the fact that people “have a lot of allergies.” . . .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fomenting fear and panic, and then politically profiting from it is what Democrats do best.

      Delete
  14. Thirty-five mines into tonight's D'Rat Debate on CNN BERNIE SANDERS has revealed himself to be the VICIOUS, STUPID MARXIST BASTARD we've always known he was.

    Come wha may Bernie, the Bellowing Bolshevik from Brooklyn, is the very LAST person any sane individualwould want to be our president.

    ReplyDelete

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