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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
"Do Something!" is a futile cry against an immutable reality.
The 20th Century, while bringing us horrible tragedies of human slaughter on an industrial scale, was also the century of greatest human achievement in many categories: Manufacturing, hygiene, science, medicine, economics, work-saving and life-saving technologies.
All this has shielded us from the harsh realities our ancestors faced. We take for granted the collective Herculean effort to elevate us out of humankind's natural state, a Hobbesean world where...
"...there is no place for Industry; because the fruit thereof is uncertain; and consequently no Culture of the Earth; no Navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by Sea; no commodious Building; no Instruments of moving, and removing such things as require much force; no Knowledge of the face of the Earth; no account of Time; no Arts; no Letters; no Society; and which is worst of all, continuall feare, and danger of violent death; And the life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short."So, it is a horrible shock to see friends, family, neighbors and fellow community members die from a virus we are powerless to stop.
21st Century American Ingenuity Wasted
Related to this is a question: Has this marvelous scientific, technological and practical progress of the 20th Century slowed? Pre-Covid-19, Derek Thomson made the case that Silicon Valley represents a vast waste of talent, focusing as they do on gee-whiz apps and smarter toys, and it all amounts to little more than diddling themselves and their avid customers for money, but to no great advancement of humankind.
What say you?
For the past two decades, we’ve funneled treasure and talent into the ethereal world of software and digital optimization. Imagine what could be accomplished if American ingenuity came back down to Earth.Imagine, indeed. I'll have more to say about this in my next blog post. Meanwhile...
What say you?
Software is valuable, you're noticing the waste in silicon valley but isn't innovation inherently wasteful? You've got to try things that don't work -- how many light bulbs did Edison make before finding a commercially viable variation?
ReplyDeleteThe Derek Thomson quote reminds me of similar sentiments I've read expressed towards the financial industry.
Stay tuned for my follow-up! Its not about the waste. Its the tragedy of opportunity costs.
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Deleteit certainly did raise a chuckle!
DeleteOne does wonder what more we could accomplish for mankind with fractal geometry other than gaming. Everything seems so politicized now, even medical science. The net effect of this, of course, is social polarization that is only getting worse over time.
DeleteThat's interesting about Fractal Geometry and it's uses.
DeleteFrom where I'm sitting, it isn't science that's political, it's populists' reaction to (against) science that introduces the political aspect. Populists of all stripes like to reject it -- I guess it's a way of demonstrating a folksy preference for instinct and common sense, while simultaneously displaying a stubborn kind of "strong" character, as if one could dominate reality through sheer force of personality. So much public policy is rolled out without a pilot scheme, it really does seem like much of the political class views experiment as a sign of lack of conviction. IMO, it's a basic responsibility.
DeleteThere's some argument over whether King Cnut's intention over his famous antics with the tide. Some say his hubris was such that he genuinely expected the tides to obey him; others that he wanted to remind his venerating courtiers of the limits of his power. There's no argument about which of the two applies in today's world.
I think you misunderstand, Jez. "We the people" are not opposed to science. We are opposed to bad science. We are opposed to mixed messages coming out of science labs, 'splained' to us dumb crackers by spin doctors who work over time to push forward their own political agenda. It is really a matter of having trust and confidence in science and medicine. Trust and confidence is earned, and thanks to our leftist media, we no longer trust what is being told to us. Now you can certainly sneer at populism if you want, but I would suggest that American populists are generally smarter than those who sit around waiting for their next government directive so that they can do what they're told.
DeleteYou know how you defeat bad science?
DeleteMixed messages are par for the course. If you want to upgrade from the 'splaining spin doctors, you need to demand a more mature style of journalism from the mainstream media, one which accommodates uncertainty and nuance (those "mixed messages" you mentioned). Meanwhile, I highly recommend bypassing the media filter and delving into the primary literature of whatever science tickles your fancy.
Populism would be fine if the leaders of populist movements would seeking to appeal to an informed and edified people; alas they pander to our basest instincts (most consistently, tribalism) instead.
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DeleteA little Mater narrative is always appreciated every now and then, but I think we're all in agreement on what you said, and I think there's a little pragmatist and a little idealist in all of us. But these blog posts are put here to provide a topic of conversation
DeleteMeta-narrative
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DeleteFranco: Your psychological projection is showing.
DeleteI shouldn't tell you this since it will egg you on, but my comment was not sparked by someone failing to follow a script, but rather people posting lengthy, repetitive and irrelevant comments that accomplish nothing but taking up real estate and interrupting the flow of the conversation.
Despite that I almost always agree with your comments!
DeleteIt's painfully obvious that you and I – along with Jez–– operate on different wavelengths. Jez on an entirely different operating SYSTEM alien to my long-established worldview.
DeleteNeither of you seem able to draw parallels and see filaments of connection with different points of view, so there's no place for me in these discussions.
Since you have virtually TAKEN OVER this blog, I realize that I no longer have a legitimate place here.
Nothing to be done about it. IT'S JUST THE WAY IT IS.
You've been trying in effect to get rid of me, albeit politely, for a long time.
It started when you began making increasingly pointed suggestions that I should establish a blog about Music and Poetry. The implication there, of course, was that i should abandon politics, because you don't believe I am qualified to to participate in what-purport-to-be "SERIOUS DISCUSSIONS" of the issues that plague us.
NOT SO, but because of your radically different perspective on life and coldly Science-oriented worldview you cannot see any value in what I have to say, because it's NOT what you WANTED –– or EXPECTED –– to hear in response to the carefully considered stimulae you provide.
You have changed a great deal since we first met, and I have not.
I'll do my best not to trouble you –– and JEZ –– any further I would have included CI, but mercifully that arrogant, ass-aching, son-of-a-bitch withdrew on his own presumably because we ignorant peasants had proven ourselves unworthy of his august attention.
You have never been so arrogant or pointedly obnoxious as he, BUT the underlying message from both of you has been essentially the same. To wit:
GET OUT of HERE, LITTLE BOY. WE DON'T WANT YOU to PLAY in OUR YARD.
All right. Consider me GONE, and PLEASE, I beg you, DON'T bother to RESPOND.
From here on in I'll do my best to follow the scriptural advice and "withdraw into my CLOSET to PRAY to my FATHER in SECRET."
Franco,
DeleteI wish that you wouldn't take blog matters so personally!
Yes, I saw the exchange between you and SF. This morning. I went to bed very early yesterday after the dentist FUBAR: the molar's crown has separated from the root system, so the extraction will have to be done by an oral surgeon, and I couldn't get an appointment with him till Friday.
"My" blog -- really, it's always belonged to Warren as well, from day one -- is now a team effort. I give team members wide latitude and am not unhappy with what my team members do.
Take care, my friend. And I hope that you will reconsider.
"So, it is a horrible shock to see friends, family, neighbors and fellow community members die from a virus we are powerless to stop."
ReplyDeleteWho has, in fact, seen a friend AND family member AND a neighbor AND another person in their community die of Corona Virus? Find me such a person please.
Why does no on express such shock at 38,000 deaths on our highways EVERY SINGLE YEAR from something that WE DO HAVE THE POWER to stop? Why are we not banning automobiles?
Why was there no expression of shock and horror in 2017-2018 when 60,000 died from common flu, a disease for which we have a vaccine that HALF THE POPULATION did not bother to get?
Why does no one express shock and horror at over 100,000 dead in Iraq caused by a war which we unquestionably started. Whether that war was right or wrong, whether it was good or bad, is beside the point. There is no question that 100,000 is a very low estimate of deaths caused by that war, and this nation has never shown the least trace of being horrified or shocked by those deaths.
We are shocked and horrified because the media is telling us to be shocked and horrified. We are "self isolating" and "social distancing" because the media has persuaded us to be afraid. Afraid because 2 people our of 10,000 actually are dying. Lightening is less dangerous, but only slightly.
It used to be that being anti-social was regarded as a very bad trait, as hostility. Now it is demanded by law.
"Find me such a person please."
DeleteI expect it's common-place in Lombardy, Northern Italy. Population 10m, current death toll 30.5k, so you only need to know 1000 people to expect 3 of them to have died. How many people do you know?
Believe me, I have friends who absolutely will not shut up about how horrified they are by the Iraq war. I wasn't mad keen on it myself, but come on guys it was ages ago.
Lightening is not contagious. I'm sure the media has been serving us incredibly ill, but there is a real difference, it's not all just empty hysterics.
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DeleteIt's the same virus the world over.
Delete@jayhawk. Excellent point. As everyone knows, I have been pushing back against the Hysteria, but I want to make it crystal clear I understand there are people suffering and grieving, and I do not want to make light of that
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DeleteA SALIENT CASE IN POINT
Delete'Blood on his hands' - Andrew Cuomo admits forcing COVID-19 patients into nursing homes, refuses to take blame
American Thinker
by Monica Showalter
New York's Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his political allies were quick to declare that President Trump had 'blood on his hands' based on the state's failure to prepare supplies for the coronavirus pandemic.
It now comes to light that the bloody hands were Cuomo's.
It's not just that the subways were continuously running packed, or New York City's schools took a long time to shut down, or city officials were busy going to the gym, if not encouraging people to attend those Chinatown parades, the better . . .
Yup; the governor, who we heard EVERY DAY talk about how awful the virus is in NY nursing homes was putting virus patients in them.........as the USS Comfort stood available. And he's not taking responsibility? (that's because he's a Democrat and the media doesn't give a s*it)
DeleteFT, I understood your point, but Jayhawk is talking about the danger posed by CV19 which is derived from the intrinsic properties of the virus itself, not our response to it.
DeleteI don't mind speculation, as long as it is clearly marked as such to avoid confusion with more considered and/or empirical statements. As I remarked to Silverfiddle a few days ago, by the time shutdown began the virus had already spread more widely in NY than in the rest of America. Obviously the more people have it in your neighbourhood, the more likely you are to pick it up: it's an avalanche effect, and NY has a tough job in its hands.
Jayhawk asked... "Who has, in fact, seen a friend AND family member AND a neighbor AND another person in their community die of Corona Virus? Find me such a person please."
DeleteI have family, friends and neighbors who have died and been sick and recovered. As do many of my friends and family across multiple continents.
Are you suggesting all of this is made up?
Z
DeleteNot exactly as stated. I lost a parent and a sister to the virus
My mother got it at a nursing home. Where is she supposed to go. She cant go home. The field hospitals would have been a great idea.
Okay where is the Obamagate post. All of us should be upset. Due process and civil rights belong to all of us. I swore an oath to uphold the Constitution and I take it seriously.
Beak,
DeleteMy mother got it at a nursing home.
As far as I'm concerned, Andrew Cuomo is a criminal for putting COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. Period. Full stop.
Sure, people are suffering and grieving, and to a great extent that suffering and grieving is exacerbated by the media. To some extent it is CREATED by the media. "The death toll has soared to 80,000" will certainly give rise to grief and suffering to a far greater degree than will an equal truth of, "Deaths have remained at 2 persons per 100,000."
ReplyDeleteBeing told that "If you go the the grocery store you risk certain death," will cause me to recognize that the writer is a jackass, but it will cause some people to starve to death. The media narrative is causing vastly more fear and misery than is the actual illness itself.
Not to mention the equally true narrative which is NEVER written that, "99.99% of people who are infected by the virus will not suffer from it to any measurable degree."
Delete"equally true narrative which is NEVER written..."
Deletewell where did you read it, then? /snark
I don't suppose you meant 99.99% literally, but still it's worth noting that it is a most fanciful number (if NYC had a 100% infection rate, only 840 people would exhibit symptoms, rather than the 45k hospitalizations and 20k deaths that have been observed so far). Here are some more data-inspired estimates. Exact numbers are not yet available, but I'd choose 80% as a decently realists but still optimistic guess.
USS Theodore Rooseveldt. 4800 crew. 1102 infected. 7 hospitalized. 1 death. How many people know about that?
ReplyDeleteJayhawk,
DeleteAnd how many recovered?
I found this (April 28, 2020):
Nearly 1,000 sailors assigned to the USS Theodore Roosevelt are still fighting the coronavirus after the Navy reassessed how it determines whether someone has recovered from the virus.
Medical staff were finding that asymptomatic sailors placed in quarantine for 14 days were testing positive for the coronavirus when leaving isolation, according to Cmdr. Clayton Doss, a Navy spokesman.
Positive tests for the virus continued to happen with Roosevelt sailors who initially tested negative, so Navy officials determined the service needed to reevaluate its criteria and testing procedures, Doss said. The initial negative test can happen when the amount of virus in the body is not high enough for the test to detect it at the time, he said.
The Navy will now only count sailors recovered for the virus once they have had two successive negative tests, with the second test happening 24 hours after the first negative test. Every sailor on the Roosevelt is now being retested this way when they begin the process to leave their quarantine to ensure they are clear of the virus, Doss said....
Do you have some different stats?
HERE is something dated May 4, 2020.
DeleteThe point is, 1 death out of 4800.
DeleteOr the Diamond Princess:
Among 3,711 Diamond Princess passengers and crew, 712 (19.2%) had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of these, 331 (46.5%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Among 381 symptomatic patients, 37 (9.7%) required intensive care, and nine (1.3%) died (8). Infections also occurred among three Japanese responders, including one nurse, one quarantine officer, and one administrative officer (9). As of March 13, among 428 U.S. passengers and crew, 107 (25.0%) had positive test results for COVID-19; 11 U.S. passengers remain hospitalized in Japan (median age = 75 years), including seven in serious condition (median age = 76 years).
So, still testing positive... The question is the grief and suffering. A positive test if one is asymptomatic is hardly causing a lot of grief and suffering. The Navy has an axe to grind. It wants a Captain reinstated because he was fired by a civilian.
DeleteAn asymptomatic carrier can still be infectious, which I can understant the Navy being especially interested in. But what AoW has brought up a few times is that officially-recovered patients are often left with chronic after-effects.
DeleteJayhawk,
DeleteThe Navy has an axe to grind. It wants a Captain reinstated because he was fired by a civilian
Oh. Well, stranger things have happened, I suppose.
Jez,
Deletewhat AoW has brought up a few times is that officially-recovered patients are often left with chronic after-effects
I have indeed brought up that matter. And I'm still finding a few new stories along those lines.
Of course, there is the possibility that those tragic stories are few and far between and being emphasized to keep up the public's fear factor.
One of the saddest stories is that of Broadway star Nick Cordero. He has finally tested negative for COVID-19, but cannot wake up from the medically induced coma and is still having problems with lung infections.
DeleteFrom this source:
... "an infection that caused his heart to stop," the fact he "needed resuscitation" and "two mini strokes."
Cordero "went on ECMO, needed surgery to removal an ECMO cannula that was restricting blood flow to his leg, a faciatomy to relieve pressure on the leg, an amputation of his right leg, an MRI to further investigate brain damage, several bronchial sweeps to clear out his lungs, a septis infection causing septic shock, a fungus in his lungs, holes in his lungs, a tracheostomy, blood clots, low blood count and platelet levels, and a temporary pacemaker to assist his heart."
Cordero — who starred in Rock of Ages and Waitress, and was nominated for a Tony for his role in Bullets Over Broadway — was admitted to Los Angeles' Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in late March.
Although his recovery process has been rocky, last week Kloots shared that doctors told her that her husband started showing “early signs” of waking up....
Nick Cordero is 41 years old and, as far as I've been able to discern, has no pre-existing health conditions.
I think generally if you're I'll enough to need a respirator there's a fair chance you won't walk away unscathed
DeleteJez,
DeleteAgreed.
I've read that doctors feel that they've been too quick to put patients on respirators. I hope that this error has been corrected!
SF,
ReplyDeleteFor the past two decades, we’ve funneled treasure and talent into the ethereal world of software and digital optimization. Imagine what could be accomplished if American ingenuity came back down to Earth.
Hmmmm....
I think it could well be that a potential talent pool for "real life solutions" has been wasted (diverted).
Jayhawk,
ReplyDeleteThe media narrative is causing vastly more fear and misery than is the actual illness itself.
No doubt!
Add to that the fear of litigation, and we see why some many businesses, including medical providers, are making use of complex and convoluted measures.
For example, today I went to the dentist (somewhat of an emergency appointment in that I need a big molar yanked). How absurd it was for me to pull down the required mask to get a quick x-ray, then be instructed to pull the mask back up quickly!
I submit that the above is more related to the fear of litigation than to actual health. After all, we have at least one litigation attorney on every corner here in Northern Virginia!
I was unmasked during my dental work, although the Dentist was.
DeleteI trust you are recovering OK?
"The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers".
Ed,
DeleteI trust you are recovering OK?
Nothing yet to recover from. My dentist, after seeing an x-ray of the offending tooth today, saw complications and has referred me to the oral surgeon. Friday @ 1:30 EDT.
Ed,
DeletePS: my dentist is typically masked while working on my teeth.
Fear makes you behave:
Deletehttps://youtu.be/QcUAG6t5aN8
What's "down to earth" is a T SHIRT, and jeans, and a good washing machine. If/when we finally stop buying so much from China, we're going to have to concentrate on those businesses again, building MADE IN AMERICA. How we Americans will be able to afford those things with the high cost of production here compared to China, is something that seems only to concern me, but I'm looking forward to MADE IN AMERICA. We can do tech, too........walk and chew gum. it's a good American quality.
ReplyDeleteA Few years ago I worked for a company that was doing work for Maytag/Whirlpool who had moved their Washer/Dryer mfg back to Ohio from Mexico because of quality issues.
DeleteIt requires the payment of higher wages, which in turn raises the cost of the product, which in turn requires paying higher wages, which... But you get the point. Been there, done that. So we tried government wage and price controls. That didn't work either.
DeleteSomething, back in the 60s and 70s, worked, but nobody today can remember what it was.
Was America's post-war boom predicated to some degree on the rest of the world's subdued output during that period?
Delete@jez:
DeleteCertainly to a degree but there were several other factors including the influx of of refugees and scientists escaping from a war torn Europe and seeking wealth plus America's roll as the technological leader through the cold war.
For instance, the community where I live was a heavy manufacturing center with the highest per capita percentage of skilled tool and die makers in the US and most probably the world. It remained so until the early 1970s.