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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
Source: Covid-19 has blown apart the myth of Silicon Valley innovation
Silicon Valley represents a textbook example of what economists call Opportunity Costs:
You can't do everything, so you choose to do this over that, and there are always costs associated with that decision, most commonly, things that don't get built, achievements forgone.
Silicon Valley is a collection of smart, educated entrepreneurial people, but they have wasted their technological talents on toys, when the world needs intellectual firepower aimed at reimagined cities, transportation, infrastructure, preserving biodiversity and habitat, food production, safe drinking water, energy production, and medical technology.
The world is in need, and a vast pool of "American ingenuity" sits in California playing with themselves and making obscene profits off of Chinese slave labor. A few days after writing the previous sentences, I stumbled across this, written by David Rotman in MIT Technology Review
Silicon Valley represents a textbook example of what economists call Opportunity Costs:
You can't do everything, so you choose to do this over that, and there are always costs associated with that decision, most commonly, things that don't get built, achievements forgone.
Silicon Valley is a collection of smart, educated entrepreneurial people, but they have wasted their technological talents on toys, when the world needs intellectual firepower aimed at reimagined cities, transportation, infrastructure, preserving biodiversity and habitat, food production, safe drinking water, energy production, and medical technology.
The world is in need, and a vast pool of "American ingenuity" sits in California playing with themselves and making obscene profits off of Chinese slave labor. A few days after writing the previous sentences, I stumbled across this, written by David Rotman in MIT Technology Review
The pandemic has made clear this festering problem: the US is no longer very good at coming up with new ideas and technologies relevant to our most basic needs.
We’re great at devising shiny, mainly software-driven bling that makes our lives more convenient in many ways. But we’re far less accomplished at reinventing health care, rethinking education, making food production and distribution more efficient, and, in general, turning our technical know-how loose on the largest sectors of the economy.
Source: Covid-19 has blown apart the myth of Silicon Valley innovation
We were in a hole before Covid-19 hit, and its going to take new ideas and smartly-focused efforts to position us for success going forward. Economics professor John Van Reenen says "technological innovation is the engine of economic growth," and he describes how to do it.
Can government incentivize industry and brainpower to steer some of its attention away from shiny (and financially lucrative) toys, and turn to more prosaic, practical pursuits? Can we actually build things again here in America?
I don't know what Silicon Valley can claim credit for, but obviously software is a deeply embedded component of most of the sectors you mention, not least pharma (eg. genetic sequencing, modelling).
ReplyDeleteVC's like to obscene profits; also they are generalists so they need easily understood consumer toys to pump their investment into, but that's only the visible tip of a vast iceberg. Software is everywhere, ubiquitous to the point of invisibility; we only notice it when it goes wrong. Annoying when it does fail, but for the most part I'd say it is living up to its incredible promise. For example, cv19 was completely sequenced almost immediately (was it a couple of months after it was discovered?) My first tech gig was to do with computational biology, so I have some appreciation for how much it's progressed over the last 20 years. In my estimation, it is nothing short of miraculous.
And what good did it do to accomplish that sequencing? According to the media and pronouncement from doctors in the media, we still have no treatment that works to any degree of reliability. We still, again according to the media, do not know if contracting the disease and recovering from it confers immunity, and if it does, for how long. We still are unable to test to any meaningful degree. We still are able to have any meaningful social interaction. So what, precisely, has that sequencing done for use, and what has Silicon Valley and its precious software actually contributed to real solution?
DeleteMy understanding is that Corona Virus Disease (19th iteration) was created in a Chinese lab--not discovered or stumbled upon through scientific investigation. Am I wrong about this?
Delete@Jayhawk: I understand that you're impatient, but you keep saying "still", as if it's already been ages and the solutions are terribly late! Sequencing is not the final goal, sure, but finding a cure and/or vaccine, and strategies to limit its spread will be much faster with the sequence than without it. And once a promising cure is found, software will stil be driving its progress through the pipeline to an approved, available treatment.
DeleteIt's actually kind of ludicrous to suggest going through all that without computers. It'd be like insisting on doing all your multiplications by repeatedly summing instead of using more efficient methods. You could do it, in theory, but in practice you would not.
@sam: very amusing!
Sam... can you cite any empirical evidence that supports that view? I've heard it a lot but without any data.
DeleteNah, Dave ... I don't know any more about this than you do, but then you could fill a warehouse with things I don't know. I surmise that the virus originated either in a Chinese lab, or by transference to humans from bats, or ingested through Gummy Bears. Dr. Fauci assures us that the virus did not originate in a Chinese lab; Secretary Pompeo assures us that overwhelming evidence does suggest that it did. Of course, "overwhelming evidence" would do more than suggest. If the Chinese did mount a bio-attack on the world, then we'd have to assume that their operation was the most botched, worst kept secret in the history of covert warfare.
Deletehttps://www.businessinsider.com/pompeo-enormous-evidence-covid-19-originated-in-a-chinese-lab-2020-5
DeleteSecretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday said there was "enormous evidence" that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese lab.
The president has made similar remarks, claiming on Thursday that he had seen evidence to support the theory, but could not share any of the details of his knowledge.
US intelligence officials and experts have said there's no evidence to prove such theories, according to The Washington Post.
Those would be the same "intelligence officials" trying to oust the president I imagine.
And it makes sense that those "intelligence officials" trying to oust the president would leak to the Post.
DeleteEd,
DeleteUS intelligence officials and experts have said there's no evidence to prove such theories, according to The Washington Post.
Those would be the same "intelligence officials" trying to oust the president I imagine.
I have to agree with that.
Ed and Sam... I've heard both Pompeo and Trump make the charge that the virus originated in a lab in China. I'm not sure I would call that evidence. They've both said they have seen the evidence, but are not forthcoming with it. Since their evidence seems to contradict their intelligence ppl, I'm wondering what it is or where it came from.
DeleteI've heard science equally sure that it came from bats, as have many other corona type viruses. If that's how we spell it. They've at least released the science and biology, and peer reviews, behind their conclusions.
Now, which side is telling the truth? I don't know but absent real evidence to refute the science and medical community, I lean towards them. Since Trump says he's seen other info, why not just lay it out and remove the doubt?
My guess is that intelligence officials would deny evidence as a means of protecting human intelligence sources, if any. Unhappily, one of Trump's weaknesses is that he talks too much and does it as a sort of back-slapping. Loose lips sinks ships. The fact is that the "people" do not have a right to know where this information comes from. Less information may be preferable to too much (conflicting) information ... but we do love our conspiracy theories.
DeletePompeo has a tendency to oversell the strength of his intelligence reports, hasn't he?
Delete@jez
DeleteImpatient? No, just impatient with facile answers. Impatient with the general who thinks he has made progress and claims victory because he knows what the enemy looks like. He has no plan for defeating the enemy. He does know what his army consists of or what its resources are. He is just running victory laps because he knows what the enemy looks like.
Whom do you have in mind?
DeleteThe "intelligence experts" said there is no evidence.
DeleteTo Mustang's point, it occurred to me that there was an unspoken "... that we can reveal to you."
But they are unnamed and Trump and Pompeo are attributed.
As I said: Those would be the same "intelligence officials" trying to oust the president I imagine. Swamp creatures.
And let's be clear, if Trump and Pompeo knew that the virus was manufactured and released with intent, they must respond to an act of war. That may color their statements.
DeleteIt occurs to me that it is not beyond possibility that the Chinese Communist Party deliberately released this virus upon the world.
DeleteApparently, supposedly, air traffic from infested Wuhan was allowed to fly out to destinations outside China's borders but that air traffic within China was slammed shut if flights originated in Wuhan.
Is the above true? If so, would it be an act of war?
AoW, which month was that? I remember the UK government trying hard to get our citizens evacuated.
DeleteJez,
DeleteI'll have to check. But I seem to recall January. Certainly before and during the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival celebration, which began on January 25.
From this calendar:
he Chinese New Year, or Spring Festival, has more than 4,000 years of history and is the longest holiday of the year. In the 21st century, the national holiday begins on the first of the Lunar Calendar and lasts until the 15th of the first month. In 2020, Chinese New Year begins on January 25th and ends February 8th.
You can probably find the exact information you seek by doing a Google Search.
There was much travel to China before January 25 so that families could be in place for the festival.
DeleteThe evacuation panic was shortly after the Chinese New Year.
DeleteFound a report from what looks like an Arabic news outlet: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/04/09/Coronavirus-Critics-ask-why-China-allowed-flights-out-of-Hubei-during-outbreak
"Can government incentivize..."
ReplyDelete...isn't THAT the problem?
A Laputan wants to know, "Can the Grand Academy of Science @ Lagado…"
DeleteWhen the commercial incentives have conveyed us to a place we do not like, what question should we ask?
Delete..isn't THAT the problem?
DeleteThat was my first thought.
"what question should we ask?"
DeleteWhat is the government doing to disincentive a better response?
:) Legislation by subtraction would probably be quite effective.
DeleteI would tend to disagree on this one. Big Tech is a captive of the elite media and academia nexus. Both are being weakened by emerging trends.
ReplyDeleteI am concerned about what happens after Trump. My guess is Biden is forced out by scandals. If the Democrats were smart they would Bernie run and get torched. After the bloodbath the party pushes out socialists. Let them form their own party. The FBI scandal will take the halo off Obama and Clinton.
If the party does not moderate it will become as irrelevant as the Brittish labor party. How many of you lose sleep over plastic straws and bags.
There is a backlash against big media and education. Big education priced itself out of utility. Sadly Russiagate may kill more jobs in media.
Beak,
DeleteBig education priced itself out of utility.
No kidding! This happens also because so many of the degrees mean nothing. Hell, even a Ph.D. in computer engineering too often means incompetence -- so tells me one of my friends who runs a computer-systems business. He has now designed his own competence test to be during the application process. It is nothing short of amazing how many MIT and CalTech grads cannot pass this basic exam!
My friend has also discovered that many of his applicants are unteachable. They think they already know everything and will not accept any guidance or criticism.
The same applies in auto mechanics and truck mechanics -- just ask Mr. AOW or Warren.
Karen Whitsett and a number of dems who appear on Fox demonstrate that there are still Scoop Jackson Democrats in the woodwork.
DeleteI think academics have value, but it's no panacea: there's a big difference between computer science and software engineering, and a background in the former is not adequate preparation for the latter.
DeleteAs for the "unteachable" thing, I think that's the same bad manners and contempt for authority that Socrates complained of. The arrogance of youth is a constant (and graduation from a prestigious university is ideal to exacerbate it!).
I agree with Beakerkin, and would offer that a short online research project will reveal that big tech owns elite media. I often wonder why there is not a greater concern about US tech companies cozy relationship with our (potential) adversaries.
DeleteToday's inane headline (WaPo):
ReplyDeleteFrench language authorities rule disease terrorizing the world is a ‘she'.
Well I'm glad that's settled.
DeleteThat language is all over the place. "virus" is masculine, "bacteria" feminine; the 'flu is feminine but the common cold, masculine! C'est impossible! bof.
DeletePoor at re-inventing health care? Where do you think MRI's, Cat scans, angioplastys, Robotic surgery, digital mammography came from? Even nasty big Pharma... a new drug costs about one Billion bucks to bring to market, most never get to the end game... all the new cancer therapies? Brain surgeries. The trouble is no one wants to pay for it.... Cat and MRI machines cost about a Million buckeroos last I checked. A new more advanced machine comes out about every 5 years...
ReplyDeleteSF,
ReplyDeleteCan government incentivize industry and brainpower to steer some of its attention away from shiny (and financially lucrative) toys, and turn to more prosaic, practical pursuits?
I hope so! Otherwise, we are doomed.
Technology has replaced religion as the opiate of the masses.
DeleteSF,
ReplyDeleteHave you seen KardiaMobile? My grandmother (1898-1981), with her long history of cardiac arrhythmia, could certainly have put that device to good use and saved quite a few trips to the hospital/doctor!