Emerging China: the Dragon Awakens

by Sam Huntington

Even a shrew will attack when it feels as if there is no other way out.  China today offers the United States a daunting strategic challenge.  We haven’t actually cornered China, but our artless foreign policy may certainly give China that impression.

There are two aspects of our relationship with China that I’d like to discuss: military posturing, and economic strength.  Before I get to that, we need an appreciation of the history of Sino-US relations.

Older Chinese still recall the “bad old days” of China’s evolution from feudal state to a modern power.  Foreign subjugation began with the Opium Wars in 1848.  Western powers, including the United States, more or less helped themselves to Chinese resources.  At the beginning of the twentieth century, China suffered increasing frequency of internal upheavals; these were mostly the result of the central government’s inability to do anything about the presence of foreign powers that sought to enrich themselves at China’s expense.  On more than one occasion, the United States sent military and naval forces to China to protect its diplomatic legation and to demonstrate American power.

China achieved a republic in the early 1920s, but one that was politically unstable.  A civil war lasted from 1927 to 1937.  The civil conflict was interrupted by a Japanese invasion and World War II.  Civil war resumed in 1945, lasting until 1949.  Thus, from the mid-1800s to 1949, China experienced warlordism, internal upheaval, starvation, and national degradation.  The Chinese call this their century of humiliation. Twenty-four million people suffered and died.

China has not forgotten that the United States was one of the group of foreign devils that imposed its will upon a weak government; it not forgotten that the USA backed the loser in the Chinese civil war.  China has also not forgotten that the so-called Korean War (1950-1953) was actually a major land engagement between the United States led United Nations and the newly created People’s Republic of China.  Another three-million people died.

Given this history, modern China does not trust the United States —and perhaps, with good reason.  In the view of the Chinese leadership, the United States is a dangerous meddler.  Of course, China does its fair share of meddling, as well.  How many Americans today realize that the Chinese played a major behind-the-scenes role in the Viet Nam War?

Nor is China very keen on the military alliance formed by the United States, Japan, and South Korea.  The United States may not have backed China into a corner, but it is likely that China feels cornered —and in this situation, perception can be dangerous.  For these reasons, a note of caution: the bluster that is Donald Trump may not work as effectively with China as it has (so far) with North Korea.  

Consequently, China has developed a unique defensive strategy.  Motivated by psychological insecurity and distrust of US motives, China is determined to maintain its internal stability and develop defenses that are impregnable to external threats.  One ambitious program involves the construction of a series of massive islands in the South China Sea, which China announced belongs to them.  These are advanced air and naval bases intended to protect mainland China from the threat of US military power.  Chinese military challenges to US naval and aviation assets has steadily increased in frequency since the Hainan Island Incident in 2001.  China also regularly harasses maritime shipping and fishing fleets from Viet Nam and the Philippine Islands.  China’s message appears clear: they are prepared to go to war to protect “their sea” from foreign domination.

China is also worried about Taiwan, which they regard as a rebellious province.  They aren’t concerned about a Taiwanese invasion, of course, but rather that by maintaining its intransigence, Taiwan sends the wrong message to the rest of the country.  China’s attitude concerning Taiwan mirrors that of the United Kingdom’s attachment to the Falkland Islands —they’ll go to war over it.  Personally, I think conflict is only a matter of time —the time table of which will depend on increased military spending and the creation of a few more artificial islands.

To Trump’s credit, at least to date, he seems more attuned to our economic relationship than he is to sword-rattling.  Still, America’s policy toward China must be nothing if not prescient —not because we need to fear the Chinese, but because that country is like no other in the entire world.

Economically, the country is a phenomenon.  Since 1987, China has moved over a half-billion human beings from their simple rural settings into brand new, completely modern urban centers [1].  There is no precedent for this mass relocation in the history of the world.  If we were looking for an equivalent, imagine transferring every human being in Western Europe to the Atlantic coastline. [2]  Moreover, China’s new cities rival those of Europe’s largest —only newer— boasting every modern convenience.

The Chinese economy is gaining on our own.  Some experts claim that China will have exceed America’s before 2030.  Washington should begin planning for this now —today, but I am not sure most politicians are even aware of China’s economic growth.

In spite of its growing economic power, China maintains the trappings of an Imperial Empire —and the glue that binds this empire is totalitarian coercion.  How does one persuade 600 million people to pack up and move away from their ancestral homes?  It’s actually quite simple:  you point automatic weapons at unarmed people and say, “Get on the bus.”

China’s totalitarian nature can be explained by the fact that it is a nation where literacy requires the memorization of 4,000 complex pictographs.  It is a land of twenty-six dialects of Chinese and 292-separate languages.  There is not a single Chinese culture.  The only way in which China is able to keep so many diverse people focused is through ruthless dictatorship —but I speak now of harshness according to the way we Americans view it.  In China, there are no human rights, no expectation for justice, no hurt feelings, and no sense of entitlement.  With the exception of its modern titles, such as President, Prime Minister, and National People’s Congress, Chinese governance today is the way it always has been: Imperial.

China is also a merciless meritocracy.  In bygone days, Chinese bureaucrats were called Mandarins.  Modern bureaucrats fulfill these same functions, and they reach their government positions in the same way.  Chinese officials must achieve high scores on a series of difficult examinations; training begins at age twelve.  Chinese officials haven’t encountered a dull-witted person since middle school.

In contrast, you will never find someone even closely resembling Maxine Waters in a highly placed position in China.  Barack Obama would never have made it past dog-catcher.  The differences between China and the United States could not be more pronounced … and this is something we should think about as we evaluate our future economic relationship with China.

Modern China is highly industrialized; it actually produces goods that can be sold in foreign markets.  What does the United States manufacture today that hasn’t been shifted to other countries who offer cheaper labor?  

The growth of highly technical exports in China has grown to about 25% of its total exports; in the United States, exports have fallen from about 20% to only seven percent.  What this means is that the United States can no longer manufacture high performance military aircraft without Chinese made chips. [3]  China also controls around 70% of the world’s telecommunications market and is positioning itself to take over the world’s high-speed train manufacturing effort.

As China proceeds in the development its power-house economy, it is at the same time persuading other nations to form mutually beneficial partnerships.  Turkey is one of these, apparently deciding that it has been rebuffed by the European Union long enough.  Russia, having quadrupled its energy exports to China, has become a major trading partner.  Thanks to China and Russia, Iran doesn’t really care about US sanctions.

How is China able to achieve all this?  I’ll offer two (of several) explanations: First, China doesn’t play fair.  In the minds of Chinese officials, business is another form of warfare; they are far more serious about this than the Americans are.  Here’s an example: US technological companies want to participate in the Chinese economy, but in order to do this, China demands that US companies divulge their proprietary secrets.  The US government may prohibit the transfer of this information to China, but in doing so, in a free-market environment, company stockholders will begin screaming bloody murder.  On the other hand, if our companies do divulge their secrets, it could have future national security implications.  Second, between 30-40% of Chinese university students major in some form of engineering —in the United States it only about seven percent.

Personally, I think our country’s economic future looks bleak.  Americans love football, but they begin losing interest after four quarters.  Our people too easily allow politicians to persuade them to go to war —but then, having spent billions, after giving up thousands of our human resources to death and serious injury, Americans become bored if the war lasts too long.  Maybe we have some kind of national attention deficit disorder; it is a malady that cannot be good for our long term economic interests.  

Americans have no Secretary of Manufacturing to advise the president on industrial production.  Added to this, most of our diplomats are incompetent and the US Congress is a clown show.  No, we aren’t training future generations to compete with international giants like China —but damn it, we do  know how to do Facebook, and we do have a great sense of self-esteem. 

Notes
[1] The people we are talking about are those who have lived in the same houses as their farming ancestors one-thousand years ago.
[2] Americans have great difficulty moving 100,000 people out of the way of an approaching hurricane.
[3] China's half-billion or so ex-farmers are now making computer chips and they do it happily even though they are making mere cents per day from their labors.