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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
Please read this excellent dispatch from Kandahar just before the fall. It gives you a sense of what could have been if our nation were not led by fools and fabulists...
In the Taliban’s Birthplace, White Flags, Jailbreaks and Fears of Revenge
The approach of a halfway smart invading government would have been been tribal and centered around each of the major cities, using an approach tailored to each area. Spin Boldak would end up full of Pakistani ISI, drug dealers, border smugglers and religious fanatics, but so what?
Kabul would be a cosmopolitan city, and Jalalabad and Kandahar would be somewhere in between. Herat and Farah would have a Persian flavor, as they always have, and the cities in the north would be Northern Alliance protectorates dominated by ethnic Tajiks, etc. (pardon my slinging all this around, but I am not an expert on the Stans). The hinterlands? Ungovernable, with patches ruled by tribal warlords. So what?
The best we could have done was to bribe the top warlords, use what sway we had, and let each city state take care of itself, and thus balance one region against another, which is how that land has functioned since before the Mongols invaded.
Security, water, electricity. That is what the people demand. The sergeants and the captains could have fixed this...
In the Taliban’s Birthplace, White Flags, Jailbreaks and Fears of Revenge
The approach of a halfway smart invading government would have been been tribal and centered around each of the major cities, using an approach tailored to each area. Spin Boldak would end up full of Pakistani ISI, drug dealers, border smugglers and religious fanatics, but so what?
Kabul would be a cosmopolitan city, and Jalalabad and Kandahar would be somewhere in between. Herat and Farah would have a Persian flavor, as they always have, and the cities in the north would be Northern Alliance protectorates dominated by ethnic Tajiks, etc. (pardon my slinging all this around, but I am not an expert on the Stans). The hinterlands? Ungovernable, with patches ruled by tribal warlords. So what?
The best we could have done was to bribe the top warlords, use what sway we had, and let each city state take care of itself, and thus balance one region against another, which is how that land has functioned since before the Mongols invaded.
Security, water, electricity. That is what the people demand. The sergeants and the captains could have fixed this...
Please pray for our troops at Kabul airport. Non-military people don't realize how dangerous and volatile that situation is. Our troops are at the mercy of the Taliban's goodwill. God help them.
ReplyDeleteThe sergeants and the captains could have fixed this...
ReplyDeleteIronically, in both Iraq and AFG, Company Grade officers and NCO's have done exactly this. With CERP funds, micro-projects were conducted in a myriad of places. The problem was, that "we" only controlled those areas while we were physically there [and typically only during daylight hours]. The night belonged to the Taliban [or the Haqqani bastards].
In other irony....whether through the now-defunct Human Terrain Teams or other cultural advisors....we did build up a vast institutional knowledge of tribal dynamics. That was never capitalized upon by the perfumed princes or the political elites....in either country.
And HKIA is indeed Fort Apache [just not the Bronx]. Hard to believe that the Taliban is essentially manning the outer perimeter, while we man the innnr.....
Yup. I saw it.
DeleteCI... I could change the names of the cities to places like San Pedro, Eloxochitlan and San Miguel and the circumstances you both reference in Afghanistan would be the same in Mexico.
ReplyDeleteThe NGO's I manage there are under the same limitations. We can help, and be extremely effective, as long as the "elected officials" are from ppl who support what we are doing.
Otherwise, night would fall and things like education, science labs, medical care and clean water were of no use.
Usually because we refused to pay the bribes required of anyone wanting to actually help people.
I have no idea how ppl who really want to help and affect positive change move forward in areas like this, be it Khandahar, Port au Prince, Ayotzinapa or some other essentially mob dominated area.
People in positions of power in our government need to start LISTENING to people with on-the-ground experience like you and CI.
DeleteOur government suffers a tragic lack of imagination. Entrenched thinking is an anchor around their necks.
...which is why the MSM's "grand narratives" are so ridiculously counterproductive.
DeleteSilver, Listen to people on-the-ground is far to much to ask from our elected elite. The last politician that listened to his advisors was Truman and that resulted in thousands of deaths but saved thousands.
DeleteThis is a no win situation that was created by the US four regimes ago. Now we have a timid leader who only wants to appease all the powers that be. Going to be some dark days ahead and I don't think harris is going to be better.
SF - In further irony, a indigenous forces are again gathering in Panjshir Province as the "Northern Resistance"......the same provincial region that was home to the Northern Alliance, circa 2001...and led by Ahmad Shah Massoud. This new incarnation....led by his son, Ahmad Massoud.
ReplyDeleteOne can almost smell the cycle starting all over again....
The wheel turns...
DeleteOkay guys... any chance there is enough indigenous resistance to bring down the Taliban as happened years ago in the Philippines?
DeleteI get that was somewhat different as the the Aquino folks had US Admin support, but is there any reason to be hopeful, at all?
Dave, there is an equal chance that this Taliban 2.0, who are the children of the original Taliban, will perhaps be more enlightened. It is 20 years later.
DeleteHopefully the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud will be the tactically genius guerilla leader that his father was.
DeleteTC - All that I've seen thus far, is that hasn't [at least yet] shown the 'charisma' that his father did. Charisma's not a tactical trait mind you, but certainly a leadership plus.
DeleteCI.... I turned to the pages of Soldier of Fortune magazine, where stories of Ahmed Shah Massoud's exploits against the Russians excited me as a kid, and found this. Dostum is back. The Taliban is likely going to be taking lots of casualties soon, and hell yeah for it.
DeleteTC: Nice find. Thanks for sharing.
DeleteCI is the expert here, but its a good bet ethnic Tajiks, Usbeks, Hazara, Turkmen, etc will take back the north and send the Taliban scurrying for Pashtun territory.
It will be interesting. Will Taliban 2.0 play international statesmen and seek legitimacy and seek to bring down international scorn on the new insurgency?
Stay tuned. Meanwhile, I continue to pray for our troops at Kabul Airport. Being at the asshole end of the world surrounded by Taliban and mobs of desperate people is a very precarious position.
I've seen pics and reports. Soldiers on the ground have already gone through Shout, Show, Shove, and (reportedly) Shoot to Warn.
My father was an Air Force Colonel. I had made EM1 (SS), Submarine electrician sergeant, and was visiting him on leave. He said we would go to the officer's club for dinner. No big deal, I'd had dinner with him in the O-club many times as a kid.
ReplyDeleteWhen we were ready to leave he asked me why I was not in uniform. "Um, Dad, it's the Officer's Club."
"I know that. Are you ashamed of that uniform?"
I finally got that he wanted to show off his son the sergeant. He took me around and introduced me to every general and senior officer in the place. It was kind of embarrassing, but was a nice moment, too. The old man was proud of me and recognized the value of a noncom.
++
DeleteWe were taught in basic training that sergeant means to serve. I have always been proud of that