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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
Below are some links for weekend reading and listening...
General Petraeus makes the case for placing a large amount of blame on President Trump's deal with the Taliban...
What do you think of Congressman Moulton and Congressman Peter Meijer's trip to Afghanistan? Don't form an opinion until you read this: ‘A Total F*cking Disaster’: Inside Seth Moulton’s Secret Trip to Kabul
Kurt Schlichter, COL, USA (Ret) speaks for many of us: General Milley, Resign
Finally, a hindsight 20/20 essay, but clear-eyed and devoid of partisan point-scoring: The Roots of American Failure in Afghanistan
Bonus: The Realignment podcast with retired General Dan Bolger. In a flat, matter of fact delivery that is at the same time engaging and entertaining, General Bolger explains why we lost Iraq and Afghanistan.
Good links, SF. Petraus makes a good case for a major negotiating no-no. Exclusion of a key party telegraphs a big message to the other side. Why?
ReplyDelete2 good balancing points:
1 - Stability maintained with with 3,500 troops
2 - Biden did not reverse. He clearly showed his disagreement with Trump policies by highly public revocations. Not this one. Why? Probably so he could blame it on Trump.
I have never, ever understand why any negotiator would set a date certain without specific non-negotiables being met first and a continuing verification. And NO that does not mean feckless blue helmets being led around Potemkin Villages.
Why? Probably so he could blame it on Trump.
DeleteOr...his consistent position on not occupying another nation to fight their civil war....
1991 - against desert storm. Turned out to be popular. Changed tune.
DeleteBosnia - "We should go to Belgrade, and we should have a Japanese-, German-style occupation of that country."
As Clinton was immersed in scandal got behind every military action, which also helped deflect public sentiment. To be fair, these weren't occupations. Until ...
In favor of the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq.
All fair points....Yet.....why don't you include his statements on Afghanistan?
DeleteNot sure which statements you mean. Surely not in the last weeks??
DeleteHe did not oppose going into Afghanistan in the beginning, supported the resolution to "go get 'em" in 2002, affirmed again in 2003 he was a "yes", and later opposed Obama's surge in Afghanistan. I don't say these positions are wrong because Biden held them, or that a person can't learn from experience and growing intelligence. But they don't show a consistent position on being in another nation to fight their civil war.
What comments did you have in mind? I have hardly read them ALL. Perhaps that we weren't in Afghanistan in response to civil war but bounty hunting? I've gotten the impression you have more experience through which your opinions - which I respect - have developed. So I am interested in your comments.
I was referring broadly to Biden's comments dating back to his tenure as Vice President, opposing a near-permanent occupation of Afghanistan, but specifically to his position [which he referred to as "counter-terrorism plus", of removing all conventional forces, but leaving some small SOF teams to coordinate air strikes against any al Qaeda elements, from based in KSA and Qatar.
DeleteI think the past few weeks have shown, that 'consistent positions' don't have much of a home on either side of the political aisle. Even Trump earlier this year, praised Biden for adhering to the withdrawal, but wanted to see an earlier date [from the original 11 September].
We certainly didn't enter AFG in response to a civil war, but ultimately, that was the reason that we stayed. The AQ presence was minimal compared to a host of other regions
More ... after reading the 'Failure' article. I suspected what their 2nd paragraph writes:
ReplyDelete"Trump’s deadline for withdrawal was ignored, a Trump-era crisis response plan aimed at avoiding chaotic evacuations was halted, and a massive intelligence failure missed adroit Taliban negotiations with local governing structures to pre-cook a rapid takeover of the country. "
I knew the first, not second until recently (just awful!) and - surprise, surprise - an intelligence failure! This is especially hard to imagine since 'intelligence' agencies monitor every cell phone communication in the country. Musta used carrier pigeons. OK, couriers possibly. What aspect of a culture that goes with the 'strong horse' did we miss?
Changing 4,000 years of a culture's mindset does not work until you get full control of the educational system and media (as here and Saudi Arabia, there by the Wahabbis) for 2 generations. Why do we think we (or anyone) can do that? Look at how the original Muslim invaders did it. Not pretty usually.
More .... I liked the general's comment "some things aren't solvable by an external force.” Boy, that has a LOT of implications beyond this situation. Our domestic laws, and the will and power to enforce them, still don't mean we can 'solve' a lot of problems through external, material force (or carrot). But we act like it is or ‘should be’ so, which to many people is the same as ‘is so.’
ReplyDeleteIt's a very materialistic or surface view that doesn't address 'unseen' or 'internal' natures. In this case, of the societal organization and history of Afghanistan. The leopard doesn’t change his spots, but he can put on a doggy mask and drop his tail to make him look more appealing and less dangerous to people who are used to befriending critters that look like dogs. But he still ain’t a dog.
Good links SF; I'll get to the podcast later today. I've always liked Bolger.
ReplyDeleteI'm rather surprised at Schlichter's take. He knows better. Gen McKenzie is calling the operational shots as the Combatant Commander for CENTCOM, not Milley. Which leads me to believe that he has more interest in the partisan fight that a sober reflection on the events transpiring. Milley is in the cross-hairs for a number of reasons,but he has relatively little actual play in the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I'd like to say that I can't believe that 2 Congressmen thought it would be a good idea to insert themselves [and the concern for their security] into the chaos at HKIA....but I can't. I totally believe it. They should be censured.
And finally, there's been a lot of commentary regarding 'missed intelligence'. I won't write a thesis here, but intelligence analysis is far more art than science. Good analysis depends on good collection; good collection depends on good assets [I'm referring to the human kind]. Once our withdrawal was announced last year, those assets started to dwindle. Our threat actors have learned long ago, the art of operational security [regarding the use of electronic communication]....making our erstwhile crystal ball a bit murky.
I'd offer another interesting article to the list: America Does Not Have a Moral Obligation to Defend Afghanistan
Thanks for that link, CI. Bandow nailed it.
DeleteI echo Mustang. Excellent link. American Conservative is solid. The deliver it without the snark and partisan point scoring.
DeleteCI, Yes, many on the right don't like Milley because of his "woke" comments, so he has fallen on the wrong side, as far as many conservative activists are concerned. Schlichter is part of that righwing universe I stay away from, but I respect him because he rarely gets too out there and he did wear the uniform.
I just think Milley and many others need to go. Accept responsibility and just go. They (and many before them) have damaged the institution. Its gotta change.
Here was the money shot from Schlichter:
A bunch of generals saying “No more?” That would have forced the politicians to do a rethink. But you just saluted, same as the guys who enabled Vietnam – something Army schools used to tell us (before they hired faculties full of pronoun people) we officers needed to do if the time came.
And this...
You’d happily nuke from orbit a specialist who dropped his NVGs on a patrol, but you just lost another war and you’re probably headed to a board seat at Raytheon. The British Royal Navy used to shoot admirals for failure to encourage the others.
This is GW Bush's fault - who didn't have a clue what to do about 9/11. After that blame it on greedy politicians and the MIC.
ReplyDeleteCI, did you see this?
ReplyDeleteLt. Col. Stuart Scheller, USMC
"I'm not saying we've got to be in Afghanistan forever. But I am saying, did any of you throw your rank on the table and say, ‘Hey, it's a bad idea to evacuate Bagram Airfield, a strategic airbase, before we evacuate everyone'? Did anyone do that? And when you didn't think to do that, did anyone raise their hand and say, ‘We completely messed this up'?"
Very wrong of him to make that public statement, and he says it was wrong. He has been relieved of command which is expected.
I have no insight, but if I were placing bets, all my money would be on Not One General "Put his Rank on the Table."
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/marine-battalion-commander-blasts-inept-military-leadership-over-afghanistan-withdrawal/
I did. And I respect the good LtCol for what he did, even knowing beforehand, the consequences that would befall him.
DeleteIf only many like him had spoken likewise over the past couple of decades [not that it would have changed national policy].
Its a cliche', we all know stories of great field grade officers who got stars on their shoulders and appeared to have lost their souls.
DeleteBTW, I served under General Raymond, the Space Force 4 Star, when he was a full bull, and he was an excellent boss. We were surprised to see somebody so knowledgeable and down to earth make it all the way.
Sadly, questioning the CIC is taboo, even if it's the truth. Col. Scheller said in his statement he would probably get hit for this and he did.
ReplyDeleteThen again, this is what a real Marine does. Stand up for his country and defend his men. He is absolutely correct in calling out this rat ass administration as to their ineptness and in turn the killings of our people.
Unfortunately, it cost him his career, but certainly not his honor! Kudos Col. Scheller
He got relieved of his command, but I don't know nowadays if this is a bootable offense. I hope not.
DeleteI want to hear from the Trump administration officials who weren't coprophagic enough to stick around for Trump's surrender to the Taliban agenda. People who warned us, repeatedly, that Trump is an illiterate imbecile. Where's Rex Tillerson? Mad Dog Mattis? Nikki Haley?
ReplyDeleteThis was a multi-faceted ****-up.
DeleteAdd H.R. McMaster and John Bolton to the list of Trump administration officials that lost their jobs trying to stop the stupidity. Stupid seems to be the main ingredient of Trump's entire foreign policy approach. If it didn't kill Americans, weaken America's standing in the world, or sabotage all geopolitical leverage America built over decades to make China and Russia stronger, Trump didn't want anything to do with it.
DeleteWorst President America will ever have.
Trump (and others) would never have closed down Bagram, particularly with all of our equipment there as a gift for those who've killed American soldiers for 20 years. That's enough for me.
ReplyDeleteI, too, hate for politics to enter into this, and Milley's ridiculous and extremely damaging BS at our military academies is bad but shouldn't be why we think he did WRONG in Afghanistan. He just DID.
I'm not sure about how much military can say against their leadership without getting the boot, but I respect and admire Schiller for what he said and hope he comes back; we need people like him.
Trump's 'out' had stipulations...not like the president today, whose stipulations only seem to be "Get your tail between your legs and hope for the best".
Kid's right...Bush should have gone in, bombed who needed bombing, and got out. But I'll never believe these were 20 wasted years and our soldiers died for nothing......we had 20 years of no terror here..I fear those days are over now under Biden.
You would have kept Bagram open, to do what exactly?
Delete"to be defended forever?" That article by Bandow says we were in Afghanistan to DEFEND it? What a premise...!
ReplyDeleteWe have ZERO representation in the region now, we have bases in Korea, Japan, etc., to be around...to have air capabilities because we're closer than our own bases here in the States! I looked at that as a huge reason...that and terrorism. It helped to have American intel in the region...(not sure we can call ours 'intel' anymore if that word's based on INTELLIGENCE, sadly!)
But I'm open to hearing how we were DEFENDING Afghans. Except maybe defending their women which, while I'm a woman, I don't entirely agree with.
CI, thanks...those are all pretty far West and South of the region I mean, but I appreciate this information.
DeleteI also appreciate your info above...
YOu said :
"CIAugust 27, 2021 at 8:50:00 PM EDT
Why? Probably so he could blame it on Trump.
Or...his consistent position on not occupying another nation to fight their civil war...."
Do you mean Trump or Biden's position?
Biden delayed the clusterf*ck withdrawal by 120 days. Can you imagine how much worse things would be if Trump's May 1st deadline had been kept?
DeleteBiden thought it a great idea to use 9/11 as the date...you want to talk provocative?
DeleteTrump wasn't about to withdraw soldiers first OR leave Bagram.
Trump wanted to host the Taliban at Camp David on 9/11/2020. Provocative was his undermining our allies for 2 years talking to them in the first place. Sabotaged the whole venture.
DeleteAny other outcome besides the Taliban taking control was a fiction. One more big lie foisted on the people by the government.
DeleteTC...ya, I never understood that Camp David thing...ridiculous. I suppose if they HAD behaved in any meaningful way, Trump would have got a BIG amount of admiration for everybody 'liking each other' on 9/11....ridiculous, but with the hate he got for making us energy independent again, or finally making our southern border tight enough, or helping Black colleges, etc., etc., etc., I guess he deserved to get himself some deserved praise.
Delete@Z - I had assumed 'region' to encompass more than one country, as it usually does.
DeleteDo you mean Trump or Biden's position?
I had answered this above, to Baysider....with regard to Biden's position on Afghanistan. One could make the argument that Trump likewise held a consistent view, if not for his last SecDef stating that the capitulation agreement was really just a ploy, and that Trump had no intention of actually withdrawing our forces.....
You seem to be on the bandwagon that denigrates our intelligence apparatus and processes, why?
I don't know what will anger me more - the next terrorist attack inflicted on America by "guests of the Taliban," or Trump supporters who will try to pretend to be upset about it.
Deletehttps://patriotalerts.com/2021/08/breaking-taliban-condemns-u-s-drone-strike-on-two-alleged-isis-terrorists/
ReplyDeleteOh my! The Taliban's CONDEMNED us!! How DARE we?! (sarcasm, of course)
I just wanted to mention I DO understand the Afghan people mostly hate the Taliban and do need defense from them and Russia, etc., but to say we defend Afghanistan was odd...........
ReplyDeleteChina will love our actions now...$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
If the Afghan people hate the taliban, they sure haven't shown in these past 20 years. Afghanistan is a place we do not understand, and we had no business there after the NA took Kabul.
DeleteThe longer war continues, the more people are affected by it. It changes them. Forever. How long have the Afghans known war? Forever. How should we expect them to behave? The way they’ve always behaved.
DeleteThey do not like foreigners. They didn’t like the Indians, or the British, or the Russians, or the Americans/Europeans who stopped by for tea. As foreigners always do, they disrupted Afghan culture and traditions. As foreigners always do, they promised them lots of bullshit. As foreigners always do, they eventually went away.
What’s next? My guess is, given 2,300 years or so of culture, they’ll revert to what they were before the foreigners showed up. That’s just people being who they are and always have been.
MUSTANG...right...except the 'what's next?' probably includes more and more terrorism due to the Taliban...against the Afghans AND the West :-(
DeleteSF...I hear that a lot by translators, etc., on the news....that they can't wait to get out of Afghanistan now because of the Taliban....the women certainly hate them. But, perhaps it's not ENOUGH who hate them to effect any real change.
ReplyDeleteTalk is cheap. Afghans are supposed to be a warlike people. Why aren't they warring against the Taliban?
Deletethey are
DeleteThey'll knock it off and kiss and make up once the Taliban cuts them in on the drug trafficking money.
Delete