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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
In February, experts were hoping we could contain and eradicate Covid-19, just like we did with SARS in 2003, but even at that time, many were worrying that it was already too late, and that now appears to be the case.
The virus may never be “under control” until we reach herd immunity.
Beware Politicians with No Skin in The Game
Our erudite friend Farmer is fond of reminding us that having skin in the game affects decision-making. Denver's Maoist city council proves his point with their latest proclamation, where they demonstrate their compassion and generosity (with other people's money, of course).
“No Coloradan or small business who is unable to pay through no fault of their own should be required to pay rent during this health emergency, nor should they accumulate debt or interest for unpaid rent,” according to the proclamationOnce Again, Government is Caught Unprepared
I don't want witch hunts and guillotines, but our standing bureaucracies were caught unprepared, and made tragic mistakes launching wide-scale testing. We need to learn the right lessons from this and restructure hierarchies and processes, and empower those good, smart people to move quickly and take risks.
But the problems go far broader and deeper than what a president does. Lack of planning and preparation contribute, but so too does bureaucratic inertia as well as fear among career officials of taking risks. Turnover in personnel robs government of historical knowledge and expertise. The process of policymaking-on-the-fly is less robust than it once was. Politics, too, gets in the way. (Once Again, Government is Caught Unprepared)
Filter the Experts
We're getting a taste of what a world run by monomaniacal experts looks like
Good article on modeling: Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good
Covid-19 Tracker
Experts can be guilty of being monomaniacs, interested only in the thing they are studying. That’s understandable, of course, because many of these things are hard to comprehend. And having put so much effort into their work, it’s also not unexpected, and very human, that most experts put a lot of weight on their conclusions and are convinced of their importance.
That’s exactly why, when scientists call for their findings to be implemented by government, we need politicians and civil servants to moderate their enthusiasm, examine contrary views and express appropriate scepticism. And, in short, judiciously weigh all the other factors that come to bear on any given set of conclusions.Supermodels
(Where is the vigorous debate?)
WHO initially suggested a case fatality rate (CFR) of 3.4 per cent ... A paper from Imperial on 10 February suggested CFR of 0.9 per cent, a more recent one on 30 March 0.66 per cent... Recent data from a German town suggest a CFR of 0.37 per cent, having found an actual infection rate in the town of about 15 per cent. (Where is the vigorous debate?)US models are faring no better...
A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers.
“That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.” (Stat News)See also:
Good article on modeling: Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good
Covid-19 Tracker
These virus models are about as helpful as some of those hurricane spaghetti models that have a storm striking anywhere from the Florida Keys to Cape Cod. I'm of the opinion that a lot more folks have had it without even knowing it. The asymptomatics. My 25-yr-old son has been living with us during this shelter-in-place after he returned from a Mother Teresa homeless shelter in the Bronx while on mission for a week. He rode the NY subway during first week of March . Only a guess, but I think we are a small herd over here.
ReplyDeleteAs Mark Twain wisely observed so long go:
ReplyDelete"There are LIES,–– GOD-DAMNED LIES, –– and then there are STATISTICS!"
OT Update. You can't defeat the human spirit...
ReplyDeleteA city filled a skate park full of sand, but then this happened...
Video he posted to Instagram showed the bikers popping wheelies and launching off the park's jumps.
Ericsson told CNN that once they were finished riding, the group teamed up with local skateboarders to move the sand by hand.
"There's major pushback," he said of the locals' feelings about the sand. "No one was happy about the sand in the park."
SF,
DeleteWhen I first told Mr. AOW, born and reared in Pasadena, about the skateboard park's being filled up with sand, he said, "Just you wait. The dirt bikers will be there before very long."
once they were finished riding, the group teamed up with local skateboarders to move the sand by hand
Gotta love that!
I figured next they would asphalt the beach.
DeleteJayhawk,
ReplyDeleteHehehe.
Well Silver, there's a lot here and I've waited to respond thinking about it.
ReplyDeleteI keep coming back to this line in the first article [Begley] cited...
FEBRUARY 4, 2020
We now know that our government, and by extension, our president knew of the potential for severity for our people when the science ppl knew it. This article lays out that the scientific community was concerned and thinking about Covid on February 4, at the latest.
We can claim we were uninformed up to a point, and that no one could have imagined the breadth or scope of Covid, up to a point. Some will call that point early January, others early February. But at some point we've got to face facts.
As you've pointed out, government was unprepared. I would add, as governments usually are.
The question for me, after the DUH moment, is now what?
Organizations, businesses and yes, governments, take their clues from the person at the top. Acting quickly, an engaged CEO shines in a crisis. Think Lee Iacocca at Chrysler or Rudy Giuliani in NYC after 9/11. If the CEO is open to differing ideas, creative ppl rise to the top. If downline ppl perceive the head guy only wants "yes men" they become yes men.
The culture of problem solving is not endemic and static within any organization. It is instilled from the top and flows from there.
President Trump gets a pass for being late to the game. As America would give any president. As we basically did with FDR and GWBush with Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
The lesson Pres Trump did not learn from those mistakes was this... from the start, tell the American people how hard this is gonna be, be honest, show empathy and chart a consistent case and tell the American people why we are on whatever particular course.
I have no idea what we do to move forward.
We move forward by putting some sensible guidelines in place and opening the damn country back up so people can go to work and take care of themselves and their families.
DeleteThis is virus with a mortality rate of .3% to at most 2% for those who contract it. It ain't the bubonic plague.
The most critical Coronavirus-related question now, IMO: Does having this disease or having antibodies to this disease confer immunity and, if so, of what length?
DeleteSF,
DeleteThis is virus with a mortality rate of .3% to at most 2% for those who contract it. It ain't the bubonic plague.
Agreed.
But recovery from this virus is hell -- from what I've been reading. Maybe there are other scenarios, better ones, but the media aren't covering them.
ReplyDeleteI believe the time for debate was back in November or December when the issue first surfaced. Granted, we didn’t know back then what we didn’t know ... but had there been a proper discussion of known facts in January, rather than a series of televised wild-ass guesses, then we might have had a nation more receptive to extraordinary precaution. Right now, hardly any “expert” has credibility with the public-school educated population. As DaBlade pointed out, the publication of data from scientific models are about as credible as Nancy Pelosi’s assurances that the House of Representatives had to pass a bill before they could know what was in it.
Mustang... I don't disagree with much of what you've posted above. I would add, and I know this will set folks off, that much of what our president has said has been either misleading, or untrue.
DeleteIf he would have adopted a posture along the lines of "This is gonna be tough. We don't have it all figured out, but are working our butts off catch up" as opposed to "We've got it under control" I think we'd be in a better place.
As for November/December, that would have been great. But as I argued above, I don't think that culture of preparing for bad stuff is part of the culture of this White House. Trump is a cheerleader, I get that. But so was Churchill and he managed to encourage the Brits while giving them the tough truth at the same time.
That type of response from the White House, I believe, would have us in a better place right now. Still not the best place, but a better place.
@ Mr. Miller:
DeleteI think what we need in this discussion is some perspective. Nothing Trump said changes reality. Nothing he might have said, even if more in line with your point of view, would have changed reality. “We’re working our butts off to catch up” would never have satisfied the political left, and since nothing he said or might have said would have alleviated the number of virus-dead, we would not be in a better place. Given the total dead in the UK as a result of Germany’s bombings, estimated at 40,000 nation-wide over 18 months, I think it would be fair to say that nothing Churchill said had any impact on that reality —beyond, perhaps, making people happier to meet the grim reaper, which is more on the order of brain candy than a realistic expectation.
@ Mustang
If what you say is true, that the American people have lost their trust of high-ranking officials, it will take quite an effort on their part reestablishing their bona fides. I have to say that Trump has not distinguished himself in picking the best and brightest to “lead” their respective departments.
Sam, if you want an argument from me, you'll have to pick a new topic. :-)
DeleteWith this population, flock would be more appropriate.
ReplyDeleteAs to government response:
ReplyDeleteSomeone asked me online, "Well, what do you think the government should do in the face of a pandemic?"
To which I replied, "It's good to figure that out before we get one. But a) We don't have one, and b) It shouldn't be this!
Similarly:
https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/23/the-seven-step-path-from-pandemic-to-totalitarianism/
Truth in commenting: I posted this at Z's and Borepatch's.
Ed,
DeleteWhy do you say We don't have one [a pandemic]?
AOW ... in order for there to be a pandemic, it has to be prevalent in a nation or in the world. Maybe we need a new definition for prevalent, but .028% of the global population doesn't appear "pandemic" to me. Widespread, yes ... but hardly the black plague.
DeletePardon me.
DeleteSimilar to Mustang (thank you sir):
It is technically a pandemic as the flu is, or the cold in terms of percentage of population affected.
It is across nations. It's not local.
Pandemic sounds like plague to most people.
It is not the plague.
The response is the plague.
AMEN, Ed!
Delete125 upvotes –– at least –– to you, sir.
I'm glad someone else SEESwhat I have FELT instinctively since this grotesque FARCE first appeared.
The TIMING has been just too pat.
I do believe "The Virus" is real, all right, but I am morally certain it's DANGER has been grossly exaggerated and cynically EXPLOITED by all the forces WORLDWIDE who long to replace our Constutionally mandated Representative Democracy with ruthless DESPOTISM.
Franco, we are a voice, crying in the wilderness..
DeleteOff topic:
ReplyDeleteMy supply of breath mints seems to have been extended greatly.
The W H O and U N, acted out a Corona Virus emergency - around October 2019.
ReplyDeleteLook it up!
The local News here in Houston KHOU Channel 11; does a False or Verify segment. Every nite about something. And last nite - about this.
Said it is verified - but not in a *suspicious way*
(with a hole lot of double talk). Ha
They did a f/v segment about the CDC scarf Lady saying
- every death is a Corona covid-19 DEATH.
But did so much double talk -finally saying- FALSE! Ha
I would e vey helpful if you took the time to write to us in ENGLISH.
DeleteYour mysterious arcane presentation appears to be some sort of CODE designed for a special "IN GROUP."
I forget small print is not your friend.
DeleteThe local News is on a Station on TV -
(Television Vision).
And the one I cited above request anyone who reads
what might be a rumor on Facebook or Tweeter to email
the host of a segment that is named
"False or Verified". A segment is all I know that it
is called;
The Sports Segment--The Weather Segment, etc...
The topic of that Nite's "False or Verified Segment"
is about a rumor on Facebook and, or Tweeter - about
The W H O ( The World Health Origination ) and
The U N ( The United Nations ) simulating an exercise
dealing with a Corona Emergency Drill. Back in
October 2019.
The Host of the segment "False or Verified"
did not explain to well ( I said they were using
a lot of double talk ).
Finally concluding with a "Verified". Then added
- but not in a suspicious way (or ACT ).
There is a silver lining about this.
ReplyDeleteA while back the debate about staying home stopping the
economy would be about the only way, to catch Congress's
attention for the Fair Tax.
Now we have the perfect storm [Don't let a good crisis
go to waste].
We need to tell Congress that we will not go back to work
until the Fair Tax has been passed in Congress.
Then, The DemocRats will be at falt for not Starting
The Economy. They will have to face the voters this
Fall Election; not voting for the Fair Tax.
With the actual numbers of Cases for COVID-19,
brings the death numbers down to around 1 percent or less.
We will be able to ask: What The HELL was all this about?
We need to turn this opportunity around on the DemocRats.
PASS THE FAIR TAX, or you are out of HERE!
Ed,
ReplyDeleteI was thinking the same thing. So many sheeple!
Gov. Newsome (CA): Okay everybody, listen up. I want everyone to repeat after me. "Moo."
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteBiden enjoys a complete unification of dems behind him, he has been able to achieve this with a minimal amount of money, the current crisis helping him due to the gross incompetence and failure from the administration to deal with it, and every time impeached potus makes statements, he digs a bigger hole for himself. Americans are so ready for sane leadership that Biden can just stay home have a virtual convention and get a massive victory in november ...
How would Biden be "sane leadership?"
DeleteDemocrats: convinced that the President of the United States doesn't know beans about anything, but elevates a 16-year old Swedish girl to the position as an expert on climate change. Biden is as whacked as was George III.
DeleteMustang: :) and they will.
ReplyDeleteDave,
ReplyDeletePresident Trump comes in for the routine criticism anyone at the top would. He is the leader, so he gets the accolades and the tomatoes. Fair enough.
Question: Who said the following, and when did he say it?
"You don’t want to make a pronouncement that no one should ever go into a restaurant," he said. "I mean, I think that might be overkill right now, but everything is on the table. It may come to the situation where we strongly recommend -- right now, myself, personally, I wouldn’t go to a restaurant."
"I just wouldn’t, because I don’t want to be in a crowded place, I have an important job to do. I don’t want to be in a situation where I’m going to be all of a sudden self-isolating for 14 days."
Answer: Dr Fauci, 15 Mar 2020
Silver, what President Trump receives from the ENEMEDIA is anything BUT "Routine Criticism." It is NOTHING BUT a vicious campaign of CALUMNY* calculated to harass and embarrass him. The ENEMEDIA'S uniform tactics have been artfully designed to destroy public confidence in him –– nothing less.
DeleteYOU know that as well as I, and yet you INSIST on making a show of "Playing Fair" with an ENEMY who clearly will stop to NOTHING to achieve their wicked, bigotted, agenda-driven objectives.
WHY?
Help for those whose command of English is limited:
___________________________________
*CALUMNY - the act of making false statements intended to damage the reputation and credibility of a targeted individual
"Supermodels
ReplyDeleteWHO initially suggested a case fatality rate (CFR) of 3.4 per cent ..."
I remember when supermodels were fun to look at.