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Friday, May 4, 2012

Chinese Dragons and Russian Bears

by Sam Huntington

While Mr. Obama makes diplomatic visitation to Afghanistan to help perpetuate his legacy as a wartime president, a far more dangerous situation is developing in Asia. No surprise, Americans are not hearing about any of this from the state-run media. Here are a few examples:

· China is claiming island territory within fifty miles of the Philippines.

· Chinese frigates regularly intruded Philippine territorial waters.

· Chinese ships fired upon Philippine fishing boats.

· Chinese naval vessels rammed Vietnamese fishing boats (See Note 1)

· Chinese accost Indian naval vessels operating off the coast of Vietnam, demanding to know why they are operating in Chinese waters.

· Chinese military aircraft intrude into Taiwanese air space.

· China intruded Japanese mainland territorial waters on 14 occasions.

· China intruded Okinawa territorial waters on 10 occasions.

· China created six major incidents with the US Navy at sea.

· Raise your hand if you aren’t aware that North Korea is China’s redheaded stepchild.

Note 1: Vietnam possesses one of the world’s largest armies: (China: 4.5 million, Vietnam: 5.9 million).

Secretary of State Clinton warned China about its aggressive behavior in 2010. She said, “… the United States has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia’s maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea.” China was not very pleased with Clinton, but her warning has not deterred them. The Chinese realize our president is a nincompoop, plus, they own the deed to the farm.

Danger of a regional conflict is real. The consequence to China’s arrogance has been a dramatic increase in military spending among Southeast Asian countries. Australia, Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan have all dedicated billions of dollars on new or upgraded military hardware. The United States is upgrading naval facilities in Guam —so much so that Representative Hank Johnson (D-GA) worries the island may capsize. Nevertheless, all of these countries recognize the wisdom of pooling their resources to keep China in check; Japan has taken the lead in establishing mutual defense cooperatives with Australia, South Korea, India, and the United States. Singapore has offered to provide bases for the US Navy.

Obama finally did turn his attention toward the Pacific Rim, but not everyone has confidence in America’s chief executive. Owing to the fact that we don’t know what motivates Chinese behavior, the Australian General Staff worries that a mistake could lead to disastrous consequences —particularly when it is likely that China will attempt to use its military to enforce a Chinese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

The problem is that while demanding that other nations treat Chinese EEZs as its sovereign territory, China routinely refuses to acknowledge the EEZs of other nations. From the standpoint of international law, EEZs are not sovereign territory. We can therefore see how China might regard the US Navy’s mission to safeguard open sea-lanes as an intolerable trespass —a situation that could lead to deadly confrontation.

Some politicians argue that given China’s dependence on global trade, a deadly confrontation is unlikely. They may have forgotten that economic ties did not hinder German aggression at the beginning of the 20th Century —a costly mistake for France. Obama’s plan to decrease the defense budget should concern us. He would rather allocate taxpayer dollars to Government Motors and rewarding unionists for their votes, but here is where we find the real and present danger. Defense cuts may encourage China to challenge allied nations within the region of Southeast Asia —they are that arrogant.

Danger lurks from further West, too. Russia has noted Obama’s weaknesses and his desperation for reelection. From Russia’s perspective, there couldn’t be a better time to threaten the United States and NATO with pre-emptive strikes unless we agree to cancel the so-called Missile Defense Shield, designed as a safeguard from Iranian ICBMs.

The reader may recall that in March, Mr. Obama gave a wink and a nod to outgoing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, informing him that he would have more “flexibility” to make a deal after the November elections. A live microphone captured Obama’s treason, but apparently, Russia believes there is no reason to wait until November.

If one understands international relations, Russia’s timing couldn’t be better. We should anticipate this sort of behavior by an adversary whenever they perceive American leadership as weak, incompetent, ineffective, or confused. And that is exactly where Mr. Obama has taken the once-great United States of America —a likely consequence of electing a community organizer to an office for which he is singularly unqualified.

This situation should once again remind us that American politicians and diplomats seldom learn important lessons of history. America cannot afford another war right now. Neither can we afford the perception of weakness, incompetence, or abject stupidity. We continue to live in a dangerous world; there is no need for Obama and his puerile cabinet to make things worse.

Rather than facing a deadly and costly regional conflict in Southeast Asia, it would be far less expensive to deter Chinese aggression vis-à-vis a strong military presence along the Pacific Rim. As for the Russian Bear, they understand but one thing: force or its promise. I have no confidence that Obama will make the proper decision on behalf of the American people or our NATO allies.

28 comments:

  1. We have forgotten both how to speak softly and how to carry a big stick.

    I think the Pacific scenario can be managed, once we get adult leadership again and clean out the naive amateurs.

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  2. It's no surprise that a weak president will be challenged regularly.

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  3. What are we going to say to China? Thanks to the last several administrations, they own us!

    No wonder we don't hear about these incursions in the MSM!

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  4. Obama: the Neville Chamberlain of our time. **sigh**

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  5. Obama's response to Russia's threats:

    Hours after Russia’s top general threatened pre-emptive strikes on proposed NATO missile defense facilities in Europe, the State Department said Thursday...

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  6. Not enough time to list all the events that are going on, but nice job highlighting some of them.

    Debbie
    Right Truth
    http://www.righttruth.typepad.com

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  7. "While Mr. Obama makes diplomatic visitation to Afghanistan to help perpetuate his legacy as a wartime president"

    Yeah, 2 wars inherited, one he ended and the other just this we announce massive withdrawals.

    You gotta clue.

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  8. EXCELLENT post! Now I get why troops from Afghanistan are being re-stationed in Australia. Before, it made no sense to me.

    I had no idea little Vietnam had such an enormous army. The world has seen the perseverance and dogged persistence of Vietnam's communist regime in our war with them. We lost. China would do well to remember history.

    It's clear that our enemies uniformly see Obama as weak and incompetent, and that's very dangerous for all parties concerned. Back in the 1960's, China was constantly in a Cold War with Russia, each trying to exert psychological dominance on the other. Both nations have perpetually maintained demands on territory outside their own and the purpose is obvious: Keep making claims and exerting pressure and eventually they may win out.

    Russia and Japan went to war in 1904 and Russia lost. Japan is now only allowed a "self-defense" force and NO navy, so their "self-defense" force has grown into one of the largest and most modern (and potentially aggressive) navies in the world. With a military budget of $42 Billion a year, and that was as of 5 years ago, they have a stealth force capable of doing huge damage to China.

    Considering all the forces joining hands to keep China in check, if China did precipitate a war they likely would fare poorly. Such is my humble opinion.

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  9. Liberalman. Re: having clue. You don't.

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  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. So...please explain. Obama inherited 2 wars, one he ended and the other just this week announced massive withdrawals.

    You're the one who hasn't a 'clue.'

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  12. No, Liberal, I won't explain. No one else here needs an explanation except yourself. Work with that.

    You just like to stir the pot and I'm pretty sure most who comment here consider you to be either an idiot or an instigator. I think of you as both, so you should consider my response to you to be like smiling kindly at a cretinous microencephalitic dwarf. A one-time magnanimous gesture.

    I will point this out to you. All the violent "demonstrations", the "occupiers", all the smashing of store windows and trashing of our parks is being done by liberals in the name of social justice and ecological awareness.

    If you are capable,(a huge benefit of the doubt here) dwell upon that in the contexts of right and wrong and doing unto others as you would damn right want them to respect your rights and property and do unto you.

    This will not be a continuing conversation.

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  13. Foreign policy and the cause of liberty is a mess after 4 years of the idiot in chief. It's also a warning to other nations, look after yourselves because one day America cannot do it for you. There's a lot of growing up to do all round.

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  14. and now we're hearing that one of the points Obama signed up to in Afghanistan this week was the once great America can never use Afghanistan as a launching area for any actions against Pakistan. imagine?

    Yup...let's face it, we can't even stop little tiny Somali canoes from attacking big American ships...what makes us think we've got the brains or the might to fight off Russia now?
    Obama seems to think that our being friendly will make us friends..........it'll NEVER EVER WORK. WHat the HECK is he thinking? Naive liberals will kill America; count on it.

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  15. Why not lob a couple hot ones on the mainland?

    What could go wrong?

    Bring on the end times. Make z happy.

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  16. Black sheep, you might also remember that Vietnam got a little frisky with China in the late 70's over Cambodia (thanks Kissinger, z's hero) and Vietnam got their teeth kicked in.

    Only John Bolton and the fringe right are completely unaware that they don't want to try that again.

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  17. Ducky, are you thinking that Vietnam had an army of 5.9 million in the 1970's when they had far less and were still recovering from war whith us? And then you say they got beat up by China? When China's effort to oust the Vietnamese from Cambodia failed utterly and the Vietnames troops stayed in Cambodia until 1989?

    Both sides claimed victory. All China was able to do was capture a few of Vietnams northermost towns, and then retreated home.

    How was that getting "their teeth kicked in"?

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  18. God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble.

    Therefore will not we fear, though the earth be removed, and though the mountains be carried into the midst of the sea;

    though the waters thereof roar and be troubled, though the mountains shake with the swelling thereof.



    There is a river, the streams whereof shall make glad the city of God, the holy place of the tabernacles of the Most High.

    God is in the midst of her; she shall not be moved:
    God shall help her, and that right early.

    The heathen raged, the kingdoms were moved: he uttered his voice, the earth melted.

    The LORD of hosts is with us; the God of Jacob is our refuge.



    Come, behold the works of the LORD, what desolations he hath made in the earth.

    He maketh wars to cease unto the end of the earth; he breaketh the bow, and cutteth the spear in sunder; he burneth the chariot in the fire.

    Be still, and know that I am God: I will be exalted among the heathen, I will be exalted in the earth.

    The LORD of hosts is with us; the God of Jacob is our refuge.


    ~ PSALM 46 (King James Version of the Holy Bible)

    Submitted by FreeThinke

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  19. The Sino-Vietnamese War was fought for 28 days in 1979. China invaded Vietnam with an estimated 400,000 troops supported by 400 tanks. Vietnam defended with 100,000 regular and 150,000 militia forces. China started this war because Deng Xioping wanted to punish Vietnam for their invasion of Cambodia, the purpose of which was to halt the wanton murder of more than 3 million human beings. This was at a time when the civilized west refused to do a single thing to stop the genocide. China was soundly defeated and retreated back into China in less than 30 days. Vietnam remained in Cambodia until 1989.

    What must we conclude from this? Given that Vietnam is purchasing submarines and aircraft from Russia, China would be well-advised to think twice before attempting any further invasions of Vietnam. Beyond this, we could conclude that Ducky is either a pathological liar, or he is just plain stupid. Many on the right think he is a liar, but I am willing to give him far more credit than my conservative friends: I think he is both.

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  20. The economy and jobs has and will remain a top issue throughout the presidential election.

    But I do worry that we are neglecting foreign policy. The matters cited above signal that there may be greater dangers lurking in the shadows than just Obama's incompetent handling of the economy.

    Of course if trouble does break out it will likely be while Romney is president and the left will just blame it all on him.

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  21. You are relentless, dedicated, amazing and other superlatives.
    It's people like yourself that still give me hope.
    But just in case, I have greatly increased my 'tactical' options thanks to the Second Amendment.

    Mossberg, Remington and Lugar are regular visitors.

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  22. AC,
    Hello! I am pleased to see that you are still alive and kicking!

    Thank you for the compliments. I don't know how much good blogging really does, but I slog on.

    Actually, this particular post was written by Sam Huntington, who recently joined this blog. He will be posting regularly -- and, for that, I am grateful.

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  23. When all around you have gone raving mad,
    And Judgment's fled once more to brutish beasts
    'Tis obvious the ending will be sad,
    As Satan bares his fangs at ghoulish feasts.


    ~ Percy Warlock Wiggins - The Satanicon, Stave One

    ~ Submitted by FreeThinke

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  24. WHOOPS! Wrong article, Sorry!

    ~ FT

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  25. Well Sam the Chinese casualties were between 10 and 15 thousand and the Vietnames were reported to have lost over 70000 so you be the judge.

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  26. Chinese sources admit to suffering 63,000 casualties with 26,000 killed. The Chinese also estimate 62,000 Vietnamese casualties, 30,000 of which were fatalities. The Vietnamese have not provided an estimate of military casualties, but did say the Chinese military killed 10,000 civilians during the invasion phase. Western estimates indicate 10,000 KIA among the Vietnamese military. None of these figures are even close to your claim … and this makes sense because you are, after all, full of crap.

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  27. Do we need any more proof that liberals are Imbeciles? I think not.

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  28. Liberals are not imbeciles. Many of the Prime Movers in their movements have been evil geniuses. They are ruthless, cunning and devilishly clever.

    Far from being stupid, they are instead PERVERSE.

    And ALL they want is POWER and CONTROL.

    ~ FreeThinke

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