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Thursday, October 16, 2014

What If Baghdad Falls?

(If you must discuss Ebola, please scroll down)


Patrick Poole has some thoughts on the matter. The first two points (Please read all links in the excerpt below):
1) ISIS will not be claiming to the be the Islamic State, they will BE the Islamic State

Symbolism doesn’t matter much to your average post-modern Westerner, but it still does in the Islamic world, and the capture of Baghdad will hold enormous value. For 500 years Baghdad was the seat of the Abbasid caliphate, and its fall to ISIS would allow the terrorist group to reclaim that mantle. Such an event will electrify the Middle East and beyond, with many Muslims holding firmly to the belief that the abolition of the Ottoman caliphate in 1924 by Ataturk was one of the key contributing factors in the decline of the Muslim world over the past century. No amount of State Department hashtags or tweets, or pronouncements by Sheikh Barack Obama and Imam John Kerry that there is nothing Islamic about the Islamic State, will be able to negate any claims by ISIS to be the revived caliphate.

2) The Great Reconciliation between jihadist groups will begin

Much of the Obama administration’s anti-ISIS efforts have been trying to leverage other “vetted moderate” groups in Syria against ISIS, with some “smart set” thinkers even advocating engaging “moderate Al-Qaeda” to that end. We are already seeing jihadist groups gravitating towards ISIS, such as the announcement this week by Pakistani Taliban leaders pledging their allegiance to the Islamic State. Other groups of younger jihadis are breaking away from Al-Qaeda franchises in North Africa and defecting to ISIS. Despite bitter rivalries between ISIS and other jihadist groups in Syria, namely Al-Qaeda’s official Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, these other groups will be hard-pressed to deny ISIS’ caliphate claims if they do take Baghdad. In that part of the world, nothing succeeds like success. If Baghdad falls, jihadist groups, some of whom have been openly hostile or remained neutral, will quickly align behind ISIS. And the horrid sound coming out of Washington, D.C., will be of foreign policy paradigms imploding....
HERE is the entire essay.  Worth your time.

The words of William Butler Yeats immediately come to mind:
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

59 comments:

  1. I guess that if you hate the country, then everything is going to plan, nothing is going wrong.

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  2. Obama doesn't think that anything has gone wrong, everything he wants is going perfectly. he’s right on track to bring us into a socialist nation. He got Obamacare, going for him.... He got Tens of millions of illegal’s flooding across the unguarded borders. Race relations have never been worse, and getting worse by the day. . IRS and EPA officials are openly breaking the law. And now we have the stock market falling like a rock along with the most dreaded disease in the world hitting our country!

    Yeah, everything is going just fine here in the “Good Ole USA”

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  3. .

    "What If Baghdad Falls? "

    Another ruling elite will emerge ...?

    Nothing will change. It is USA's mess but not USA's fight! And USA needs to stay out of it, until some one comes up with a better idea.

    Ema Nymton
    ~@:o?
    .

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  4. For the record: I have never advocated that the United States get involved in the ongoing regional war that the Islamic State is waging.

    The problem is not the West's. The problem is the Middle East's.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey Emema did you make it all the way here without your Walker?
    That's great, the Nurseing Home will be glad to hear that!

    ReplyDelete
  6. The Great Reconciliation between jihadist groups will begin

    I can hardly wait! It's about time that all those damn Shi'a were beheaded!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Looks like AOW and Western Hero have some synchronicity going today.

    This man's observations hit the bullseye. Other jihadi splinters are watching, and they will join the strong horse, and that includes McCain-Graham-Obama's "moderate" Syrian terrorists we are planning on blessing with millions of dollars in weaponry.

    We should stay wholly and completely out of this. Let Iran step. The #@!*!ing anklebiters were adept and hitting us with IEDs when we were there. Let's see how that stand up to ISIS.

    Properly done, this situation could destablize Iran, weaken their military, isolate the Hezbos in the Levant, and perhaps even topple the Mullahs.

    And, who says many Iraqis don't welcome ISIS? Has anyone taken a poll?

    Iraqi insurgents, with Iran's help, mortared our based, bombed our convoy and sabotaged Iraq's infrastructure when we were there.

    Why are they not repelling ISIS with similar tactics.

    We are on one more fool's errand over there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SF,
      Definitely synchronicity between our two blog sites today. I queued up my post yesterday.

      Delete
  8. Choosing sides in a sectarian conflict is ill advised. I might change my mind about this if anyone can show me one (1) national interest in our involvement within the Levant. We might have learned from a cursory study of Yugoslavia. It is possible to change ethnic behavior whenever you have a bayonet at the throats of the people —but whenever you remove that threat, they revert to their previous cultural biases and petty hatreds. Americans have repeatedly demonstrated that they lack resolve and cannot abide overtime play. Whoever was killed or seriously wounded in Iraq was all for nothing. This is not a very good return on our investment. Beyond this, I have no problem when Sunnis (who I believe are the problem) kill other Sunnis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mustang,
      My view coincides with yours.

      Delete
    2. Exactly right, Mustang. Thank you.

      Delete
    3. Agreed. I was not a fan of Bosnian busybodyism, and the memory was still pungent when we started talking about middle east people loving freedom.

      Delete
    4. How could Middle Easterners lose what they've never had, Baysider?

      This constant engagement in wars we have no intention of ever winning has GOT to stop. It's a rotten, corrupt practice that benefits no one but The Oligarchs. It has NOTHING to do with "keeping he world safe for democracy," and nothing to do with saving indigenous people from vicious dictators. I has EVERYTHING to do with lining the pockets of the International Elite with ever increasing amounts of GOLD while they work to weaken and ultimately ENSLAVE EVERYBODY.

      Delete
  9. IMO, to understand US involvement, you must, as always, follow the money. The money, in this case, is oil and gas. Those pulling Obama's strings are playing a long game over who will control the flow of oil and gas from the region and who will not (Russia and Iran). This is why the Saudis are playing their role, not by committing troops to the fight, but by increasing their oil production at a time when there is already an over supply. The Saudis are prepared to keep this up for a year or two. Iran and Russia, among others, will see their economies ruined!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sounds plausible, Jim. Sadly, you may very well be right.

      At any rate I think it's long past time to stop sending our boys into the maelstrom to die or come home maimed and blinded for the benefit of obscenely rich profiteers who seek to control and ultimately enslave the world via the eventual formation of a Global Government.

      Delete
  10. Blame this Pathetic President for what's happening here in America with these Ebola cases.
    Blame Obama for ISIS for his moronic idea of pulling all of our combative troop out at the time that he did.

    Iraq is Obama's failed war, he will forever be solely responsible for ISIS and what occurs in Iraq regardless what he or his idiotic followers say about the George Bush administration.

    The Blame Game for George Bush has expired a long time ago. How long will we blame George Bush for Obama’s failures and his problems?
    This pathetic bunch is NEVER guilty or held accountable for anything. Blaming someone else is their way of explaining their failures.
    Are we going to Blame Bush for screwing up Egypt, Libya, and Syria And for the laps in security at the White House, destroying America's healthcare system, and for allowing Airplanes from West African land here in the USA with these Ebola cases?

    ReplyDelete
  11. it's all too confusing; I think of how we fought for Baghdad and how many of our own we lost there and in Mosul, and so many other cities: It hurts me when I hear soldiers on television vow that we had been winning and could have won. And they know far, FAR more than any of us here weighing does. It's like Vietnam, I guess. Those soldiers felt the same way.
    Yet we leave. And now we're so weakened there we can't even bomb ISIS when they're on the road to Baghdad; how hard can THAT be? They're not approaching in tunnels.
    We're not interested; that's the problem.
    We keep hearing of Islamic groups over there who don't want to be as fundamentalist as ISIS is forcing their women into, etc. I'm counting on them to fight back. Maybe they could with our help. "Beautiful dreeeaaaamer.."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. Confusing. And hard to want to throw 'good' lives after 'bad.' I just cringed under all the 'democracy' talk going into Iraq. Bush was strongly influence by Sharansky's book The Case for Democracy. I read it and did not agree that freedom would overcome tyranny in the Middle East. This was at the base of all the nation building talk. I would love to have heard Mr. Z's arguments on Iraq.

      Delete
    2. What business did we have "fighting for Baghdad"?

      Of course the whole mission to save Vietnam from the Vietnamese was perfectly sound.

      Delete
    3. Baysider,
      And why do you suppose that freedom did not overcome tyranny?

      Delete
  12. On the other hand: let them all just kill themselves....and if ISIS succeeds, they'll be attacking Saudi Arabia next. Let's see how THAT goes; maybe THEN Saudis will step up and do what we should be doing.
    I can hope.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NOW you're talking. That' the way we ought to go all right. We cannot save everyone in the world from the consequences of their bad luck and folly.

      We have no duty, and certainly no "right" to try to "play God."

      Delete
  13. Pardon me if I sound to be nieve, but I do not understand how the most powerful nation on earth, a country with all of our technology, our massive weapons, our manpower and strength. A country who’s president is one of the best Golf players in the whole world, as one of the biggest and most pathetic liars in the world, is impotent to stop these savages from ISIS? Can't we even put together effective air strikes? Who is going to stop them on the ground? Kurds have been begging for more military hardware. Something is wrong, and that something is sitting in the White House.

    And by the way, before you Bull-Shitting Libs/Progressive dingbats start playing your games..
    I really hate to have to keep reminding you of this but there was no ISIS in Iraq when George Bush left office.. Get it?

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  14. Now that we have virtually dubbed ISIS as omnipotent I wonder why they are being pushed back in Koane just as they were at the Mosul dam.

    If the Turks weren't more interested in bombing the PKK (scary Marxists), ISIS would probably already be out of Kobane.

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  15. As one who lived and fought in Baghdad for almost a year and a half, Iraq was not worth the lives our our Brothers and Sisters who fell there. Considering the fact that we removed the regional counterweight to Iran and installed Tehran's new ally...it's time we extricated ourselves and let them fight over the competing legacies of their invisible sky god and his pedophile prophet.

    The Shi'a militia's never went away, they simply laid low once we announced our withdrawal date in 2008. Let Jaysh al-Mahdi dust off their IED skills and take on ISIS.

    ReplyDelete
  16. CI: Amen, brother.

    The Observer: Despite what Obama's McCain, Graham, Samantha Power, Susan Rice pseudo-warlord gang says, dropping bombs and hoping to hit the bad guys is only marginally effective and grossly inefficient. For airstrikes to work, you need controllers on the ground calling them in, and you need armies on the ground to take advantage of the effects.

    To win wars, you need soldiers on the ground killing the enemy and taking and holding their territory.

    But anyway, see CI's comment above. This is not our fight and we shouldn't be in there at all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yet we constantly hear of soldiers who are dying to go back because they saw such an optimistic future there. Don't know who to believe.

      Delete
    2. Z,
      As far as I can tell, the hopes for an optimistic future there no longer exist -- if they ever realistically did.

      I'm in agreement with CI: This is not our fight and we shouldn't be in there at all.

      Delete
    3. Z,
      Here's a thought....

      Some of those cute Iraqi kids that were so fond of the coalition forces (when candy was being handed out) are probably part of the IS army.

      Delete
    4. My cousin (USMC) said after he returned from Helmand Province, Afghanistan: "Those people don't have sh*t, they don't want sh*t, and they're never going to have sh*t."

      This, from an easy-going young man who likes everybody and never says a word against anyone else.

      Delete
  17. I agree, you DO need boots on the ground, bit Obama is afraid of what his base will say about iy

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    Replies
    1. Most military experts agree we need boots on the ground...that they have to be all American is questionable. But, nobody else really ever steps up. We do the heavy lifting, then they hate us....on the heels of our leftwing media hating us first. Never fails.

      Delete
    2. The USA must STOP participating in these useless, fruitless wars that never achieve any worthwhile goals. All they do is line the pockets of The Oligarchs with gold -- at the expense of precious AMERICAN lives. Nuts to that.

      I've always despised the Peaceniks, because most of them were Communists trying to undermine us and weaken our hegemony, BUT as I look back on all the conflicts we've participated since the end of WWII, I realize we have lost much and gained NOTHING from ANY of them.

      If we have no intention of CONQUERING, SUGJUGATING and CONTROLLING these rotten rogue nations the way we conquered Japan in WWII, we have no business fighting them halfheartedly. It isn't fair to our troops.

      Delete
  18. Steve,
    But not US boots, for reasons I and CI have listed.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Let those primordial barbarians annihilate each other and "drill, baby, drill"!

    ReplyDelete
  20. If Baghdad falls the horror of thousands killed in a frenzy of blood lust up to now will look like a church picnic. Tens of thousands beheaded is not something the world can stand by and watch. Especially so since the minute they stop killing each other they will come here and do the same. What a shame Obama threw away the relative stability of Iraq that was bequeathed to him by Bush. The world is paying a heavy price for his incompetence and indifference.

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    Replies
    1. It was wrong to go in there in the first place, Mike. Both the Bushes,the Clintons and Obama are on the SAME team. They're playing at the behest of and for the benefit of The OLIGARCHS not the USA.

      We've been had in a very big way for decades. Did you know the Rothschilds and others of their diabolically clever, incredibly powerful ilk funded BOTH sides of every major conflict in the last century?

      That ought to tell you something about what's REALLY going on, and why it never seems to matter WHICH side "wins" one of our sham elections.

      Delete
    2. Let us also understand this....If the Islamic State can use such weapons against here in our homeland, the IS will indeed do so.

      Delete
    3. It would be interesting if they tried. The degraded state of these old munitions are likely to be more of a hazard to the handler than its effect in an explosive device.

      Delete
    4. CI,
      Likely? Yes. But not 100% out of the realm of the possible.

      Delete
  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. No Mike, the tragedy is that Obama stuck with Maliki so long and let him oppress and slaughter Sunnis.
    The resentment simmered and now the chickens are roosting.

    Bush gave us the gift that will keep giving.

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    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous,
      Review the guidelines for commenting here.

      Delete
    3. Duck,
      the tragedy is that Obama stuck with Maliki so long and let him oppress and slaughter Sunnis

      Why did Obama do that?

      Delete
    4. Go easy on Mike. Our media has completely abrogated it's duty to inform and educate. The American public knew nothing of Iraqi political and sectarian realities in 2003......and that hasn't changed today. It's far simpler to pretend that the only dynamics that matter are our, because....America.

      Delete
  23. Mike is exactly right; Obama's offer of a few thousand couldn't have made Maliki feel like we were serious and in it to really help. Well said, Mike.

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  24. We should stay out of it and nuke what is left standing. One nuked city for each and every terrorist attack anywhere in the world.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Brilliant.
      The sad thing is you probably believe that.

      Delete
  25. Hey guys! I'm baaa-aaack!

    It is unlikely Baghdad could "fall" anytime soon. It could, however, become a long-term battlefront if this latest war isn't finished fast.

    JMJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yo, Jersey.

      Freethinke has been looking for you.
      He's been a little naughty lately but he'd probably enjoy it if you checked in.

      Delete
    2. SORRY, to hear that!

      Delete
    3. WELCOME, Jersey! We were afraid you'd passed into the Great Beyond.

      Take a look at FreeThinke's Blog for September 18. You'll find a WANTED poster featuring your ugly mug. ;-)

      A couple of days later we also posted two versions of The Jersey Bounce in your honor -- one with Ella Fitzgerald and Connie Francis, the other with Benny Goodman.

      Go take a look, and say something uncharacteristically nice.

      Seriously, REALLY GLAD to see you, man.

      Take care.

      FT

      Delete
  26. Ducky,
    If you do some investigation, I think you will find that the sectarian hatred predates the Bush-Cheney invasion.

    It's a seething cauldron of ancient hatreds and sectarian chauvinism. We have no business there.

    Bush's invasion was a colossal blunder of historic proportions. Obama's actions are exacerbating the tragedy, doing nothing more that kindling a small flame of hope before our fecklessness and ineptitude pulls the rug out from under those who are dumb enough (or desperate enough) to believe we will ride to their rescue.

    I hate to say it, but if you're not a Muslim, or if you're the wrong kind of Muslim or an ethnic minority over there, you're on your own.

    And if anybody thinks the "good" Syrian terrorists Obama's Armchair Warlords (Samantha Power, Susan Rice, John Heinz Kerry, John McCain, Lindsay Graham) want to shower with US weaponry will be able to topple Assad while simultaneously fighting ISIS, they are smoking crack.

    Those "good" Syrian jihadis will take our weaponry and our training and hook up with ISIS faster than a freshman at a frat party.

    Bush-Cheney created a tragedy; Obama is presiding over its descent into a horrible farce.

    ReplyDelete

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