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| Silverfiddle Rant! |
Where are we most likely to become infected by Coronavirus? Least likely?
Quillette editor Jonathan Kay put some analytical thought into COVID-19 Super Spreader Events (SSE), and wrote an essay that has now started a project by a group of scientists who took over where he left off.
COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons
The article is an interesting analysis of what types of activities do and do not cause SSEs. He caveats his work: Although he holds a scientific degree and has hands-on experience with mathematic modeling, he is not an epidemiologist and he is using anecdotal data that is not a proper statistical sample.
Here is the bottom line of his analysis:
When do COVID-19 SSEs happen? Based on the list I’ve assembled, the short answer is: Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying. You don’t have to be a 19th-century German bacteriologist or MIT expert in mucosalivary ballistics to understand what this tells us about the most likely mode of transmission.And when COVID-19 SSE's do not happen...
It’s worth scanning all the myriad forms of common human activity that aren’t represented among these listed SSEs: watching movies in a theater, being on a train or bus, attending theater, opera, or symphony [...] These are activities where people often find themselves surrounded by strangers in densely packed rooms—as with all those above-described SSEs—but, crucially, where attendees also are expected to sit still and talk in hushed tones.It makes sense to me, although if this bears out, church services and live music concerts are potential hot zones. What say you?
See Also:
People ‘shed’ high levels of coronavirus early in the infection
London Coronavirus Protests
Fury in Germany
