tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post7666694203503755210..comments2023-10-03T07:01:41.144-05:00Comments on Always On Watch: Semper Vigilans: Behavioral PrimingAlways On Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08192688822955022541noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-19737724644913317512020-06-28T08:55:14.957-05:002020-06-28T08:55:14.957-05:00Beak,
Sounds like no fun!
I haven't been sick...Beak,<br />Sounds like no fun!<br /><br />I haven't been sick in years, so I doubt that I've ever had the Ripley (COVID-19).Always On Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08192688822955022541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-37465901838430653392020-06-27T17:23:46.323-05:002020-06-27T17:23:46.323-05:00I got lucky no temperature but coughing that left ...I got lucky no temperature but coughing that left me unaware of my surroundings for 15 minutes and the government made me work. It was. January and other than the cough not bad. <br /><br />We didnt know the virus was here<br />beakerkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06088967209404588378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-73795389447108218642020-06-27T04:00:26.727-05:002020-06-27T04:00:26.727-05:00I expect it has been happening. I think exceeding ...I expect it has been happening. I think exceeding ICU capacity would be even worse. We have to choose the least terrible solution, unfortunately.jezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14865247084509280406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-2341626959058401912020-06-26T17:58:33.760-05:002020-06-26T17:58:33.760-05:00I would like to think that the US Navy is manned b...I would like to think that the US Navy is manned by <i>"a young, fit cohort,"</i> but I live in San Diego, which is the laegest Navy port in the world and I can telly that whatever the Navy is manned by, it is most definitely not <i>"a young, fit cohort."</i>Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00756807802218022043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-72358834493336271042020-06-26T17:53:55.896-05:002020-06-26T17:53:55.896-05:00"What I don't want is to see heart attack...<i>"What I don't want is to see heart attack patients die because we couldn't be bothered to manage this outbreak sensibly."</i><br /><br />How do we know that hasn't actually been happening for the pas three months, jez? Because, in fact, we haven't been able to manage the pandemic sensibly. <br /><br />Like New York City screaming for ventilators, and then sending back thousands that it did not, in fact, need. Or sending UNS Comfort and finding out she was not needed. Or building massive "tent city" temporary hospitals in Central Park that went totally unused. All while cancelling elective surgeries and mandating that nursing homes accept known Covid cases.<br /><br />How many of cancers became inoperable because they were cancelled, as it turns out unnecessarily? We don't know, do we? How many people having heart attacks and strokes did not go to the hospital because of news reports that told them to stay away because emergency rooms were being used for Covid cases only? We have no idea, do we.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00756807802218022043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-69283993717272854952020-06-26T14:25:30.908-05:002020-06-26T14:25:30.908-05:00Get behaviourially primed for lots more mob rule b...Get behaviourially primed for lots more <a href="https://time.com/5859459/in-defense-of-virtue-signaling-2/" rel="nofollow">mob rule</a> because, "Dammit, the emperor is wearing some Very fine DAMN clothes, and you are a racist if you don't agree!"The Absolute Marxisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01355154804077467952noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-66640805535757351172020-06-26T14:24:45.077-05:002020-06-26T14:24:45.077-05:00Thanks mustang.
re the extremism, I wasn't rea...Thanks mustang.<br />re the extremism, I wasn't really thinking of anyone's cv19 reaction (I'm pretty much on the same page as you about the masks). I'm seeing a lot of extremism generally on social media, i guess the blm stuff is a trigger for it.<br />btw I know what you mean about counting cv19 deaths, but overall I believe the excess deaths suggest that official cv19 mortality is an under- rather than an over-estimation.jezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14865247084509280406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-11099293784316318562020-06-26T14:11:11.745-05:002020-06-26T14:11:11.745-05:00A sailor would know better than me, but I would gu...A sailor would know better than me, but I would guess this was a mostly young, fit cohort.jezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14865247084509280406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-65301119047681641552020-06-26T14:10:21.365-05:002020-06-26T14:10:21.365-05:00I think it's catastrophic when a region's ...I think it's catastrophic when a region's ICU capacity gets overwhelmed. An experience like yours is unpleasant and I wouldn't wish it on anyone, but I wouldn't be unduly concerned about 100 million people going through it. But we know not everyone responds to the infection the same way you did. What I don't want is to see heart attack patients die because we couldn't be bothered to manage this outbreak sensibly. A state like Colorado has a few thousand ICU beds (the plan back in April was to <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2020/04/01/colorado-critical-care-hospital-bed-capacity.html" rel="nofollow">increase capacity to 5000</a>, don't know if they managed that yet), compare that to the population of a large city like Denver (over 1/2 million), you don't need a crazy number of serious cases to get into catastrophic territory. Certainly, in a scenario where Denver got up to a 20% infection rate (as on the USS Rooseveldt), I think we'd have to cross our fingers for much less than 5% of those cases requiring ICU. This doesn't seem like an outlandish scenario to me, I don't know why it seems so implausible to you that you can dismiss it out of hand.jezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14865247084509280406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-45921709614764649812020-06-26T14:07:27.819-05:002020-06-26T14:07:27.819-05:00Jayhawk,
That kind of begs the question of why the...Jayhawk,<br /><i>That kind of begs the question of why they were not unsustainable when the shutdown was first imposed.</i><br /><br />Indeed!<br /><br />The economic harm from the first shut down has been horrific.Always On Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08192688822955022541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-2075983125199621462020-06-26T14:06:13.154-05:002020-06-26T14:06:13.154-05:00Jayhawk,
Sheesh.
What madness!Jayhawk,<br />Sheesh.<br /><br />What madness!Always On Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08192688822955022541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-20447158461655947542020-06-26T12:54:25.341-05:002020-06-26T12:54:25.341-05:00Unrelated, but too good to pass up. Unilever is di...Unrelated, but too good to pass up. Unilever is discontinuing the term <i>"whitening"</i> on its dental care products.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00756807802218022043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-31166236443398536992020-06-26T12:50:39.930-05:002020-06-26T12:50:39.930-05:00California "reopened" with certain speci...California "reopened" with certain specific "triggers" that, if three or more of the eight were met, would require reestablishing the shutdown. So, four have been met but the shut down is net being reestablished because, <i>"economic repercussions of shutdown are unsustainable."</i> That kind of begs the question of why they were not unsustainable when the shutdown was first imposed. The governmental response to the panndemic becomes more incoherent every day.<br />Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00756807802218022043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-13526171628914432362020-06-26T10:09:57.205-05:002020-06-26T10:09:57.205-05:00Thanks, Jayhawk!Thanks, Jayhawk!Always On Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08192688822955022541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-570692696165743132020-06-26T10:02:17.768-05:002020-06-26T10:02:17.768-05:00Somebody needs to explain the USS Rooseveldt to me...Somebody needs to explain the USS Rooseveldt to me. 5000 sailors, living in very close proximity. Sleeping in crowded crews quarters, bathing and going to the bathroom together. Eating meals while sitting with their shoulders touching. FIVE THOUSAND people, and FOUR THOUSAND of them DID NOT BECOME INFECTED. Not only that, but ONLY ONE DIED.<br /><br />How did that happen when we are told that walking around in a city, six feet apart, in the open air, eating at home, not even speaking to each other, WE WILL ALL DIE IF WE DON'T WEAR MASKS.<br />Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00756807802218022043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-30870582704635611032020-06-26T09:55:02.743-05:002020-06-26T09:55:02.743-05:00@AOW
I was feverish (temp 104+) and did not eat fo...@AOW<br />I was feverish (temp 104+) and did not eat for a week. Appetite returned slowly and I was coughing for another two weeks. Concerned about cough, I went to clinic. I took Zithromax for four days and cough cleared up. I then had a second round of the same symptoms. Lesser intensity (temp 101) ans shorter duration. Start to finish about six weeks. It was not a big deal, and my wife either did not catch it or did so with no symptoms whatever.<br /><br />@Jez<br />What would constitute a <i>"catastrophic flood of cases"</i> in your mind. A hundred million people who experienced what I did? The media is reporting the pandemic as if catching the virus is an immediate and certain death sentence. There is another approach which admits that the virus almost never kills but that we should all live forever. Neither one seems realistic to me. <br /><br />The nature of the virus suggests to me that whatever the eventual outcome, a truly <i>"catastrophic flood of cases"</i> is one thing is simply cannot produce.<br />Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00756807802218022043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-75562375081665290152020-06-26T08:43:23.453-05:002020-06-26T08:43:23.453-05:00@ Jez
You always present reasoned arguments and I...@ Jez<br /><br />You always present reasoned arguments and I appreciate that. There are several aspects to this discussion. The first is an issue of public health; another is how people react to the constant shifting of information we receive from government officials, which does nothing to inspire confidence in the government. We Americans can always tell when an official is lying to us because his or her lips are moving.<br /><br />It is in the nature of the American people to resist authority whenever they see no rhyme or reason for it. I would hardly refer to these people as extremists; they are merely people who place a high value on their individual right to liberty and the freedom to make decisions for themselves. Hopefully, these decisions are based on a logical analysis of their understanding of the facts, and if these understandings are skewed by inaccurate or contradictory government statements, that would be a concern for us all.<br /><br />We know, for example, that the death rates have been manipulated. A person who dies from stage four lung cancer, who also has Covid-19 infection, is being counted as a Covid-19 related death. It’s pure poppycock. I can’t speak for most Americans, but I can say that I deeply resent the fact that public health officials are manipulating facts. If it is true that data manipulation is all part of a scam by hospital administrators to obtain federal funding based on the number of Covid-19 patients, then you can understand why Americans would be angry and distrustful.<br /><br />People die every day; we can’t get around that. They die from a myriad of causes and most deaths are not related to Covid-19. In life, death is just around the corner. Personally, I am sensitive to the issue of social propriety. I carry a mask with me when I go into a store. If most people are wearing masks, I’ll put mine on. If most people aren’t wearing masks, I leave it in my Covid-19 free pocket. But I will not stay at home, hiding under my bed, praying for deliverance. If that makes me an extremist, so be it.Mustanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06388694472897425202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-1758410895969881062020-06-26T07:44:51.094-05:002020-06-26T07:44:51.094-05:00If 70% of ICU beds are occupied by the usual numbe...If 70% of ICU beds are occupied by the usual number of patients, that means that capacity has only increased by at most 43%. Substantially less than that, because I'm sure there's always some spare ICU capacity in normal operation. But even 43% would be a pretty disappointing return on the investment of shutting down the economy for 3 months.<br /><br />The significance of cv19 does not lie in the current infection rate, or the current death toll, or the current number of serious cases. Its significance lies in the rate at which it spreads. We're worried about it, not because of the current figures but because of how rapidly it can go from gentle outbreak to catastrophic flood of cases.<br /><br />It is not encouraging that the mortality rate is decreasing (I must be looking at a different graph, because, for either of our nations, it isn't) because there's no indication that the mortality rate won't surge again whenever the infection rate (true, not measured) is permitted to rise. I furthest I can go in that direction is to say it is not discouraging that the measured infection rate is rising, to the extent that it is an artifact of increased testing, it is not a threat. That said, I think it's reasonable to expect that the true infection rate is rising too in response to all the crowd activity earlier this month. This will be reflected in the death rate, allowing for 2-3 weeks of lag.<br />"It's much too easy to test or misrepresent statistical data to suit a political agenda."<br />true, but it's not that much harder to learn how to spot their tricks. The main problem is the amount of discipline it takes to apply that knowledge consistently.<br />The internet is saturated with extremist recruiters seeking out disgruntled folks to groom. It's hard watching friends falling for bad-faith arguments and rhetorical trickery.jezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14865247084509280406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-49959458736681832422020-06-26T07:35:49.048-05:002020-06-26T07:35:49.048-05:00The Infotainment Media Complex is blaring out the ...The Infotainment Media Complex is blaring out the news that cases are reaching "apocalyptic" levels, etc, but to make this news meaningful, we also need a chart of daily deaths and daily hospitalizations.Silverfiddlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13541652236676260219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-70878391140003732592020-06-26T06:07:11.898-05:002020-06-26T06:07:11.898-05:00FYI: A while back, Jayhawk shared in a comment tha...FYI: A while back, Jayhawk shared in a comment that he has had COVID-19. If he returns to this thread, perhaps he'll remind us of the road to recovery.Always On Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08192688822955022541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-91140509771353723562020-06-26T05:40:56.057-05:002020-06-26T05:40:56.057-05:00I think what Jayhawk might mean, Jez, is that the ...I think what Jayhawk might mean, Jez, is that the SIGNIFICANCE of the Wuhan-China Virus may have been greatly exaggerated.<br /><br />Remember the hospital ships resident Trump arranged with remarkable speed to dock in New York and on the West coast? The hundreds of beds those ships made available were hardly used at all by China-Wuhan Virus patients. The ships were intended to care for victims of OTHER diseases, but let after a few weeks, because they were not being used.<br /><br />Even though new cases appear to been on the use –– largely because of an enormous increase in TESTING which picks up many asymptomatic or extremely mild cases which might have got unnoticed an undated before massive testing began, the number of deaths has decreased dramatically..<br /><br />It should be most ENCOURAGING to learn that the mortality rate is decreasing even as the increased number of diagnosed cases gets reported.<br /><br />It' much too easy to test or misrepresent statistical data to suit a political agenda. Ergo, it's probbly not possible to know what is REALLY going on, because th problem has been factionalized, politicized an EXPLOITED for political purposes.<br /><br />I have noticed for nearly SIXTY years that LYING with craftily-selected FACTS, FACTOIDS and CANARDS has been transformed into a fine BLACK ART by the hyper-aggressive, ever-insurgent forces of the LEFT who thrive on fomenting Anxiety, Distress, Depression, Desperation, Destabilization, and Chaos.Franco Aragostahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11088635482766081825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-57047968705444855912020-06-26T05:18:03.590-05:002020-06-26T05:18:03.590-05:00];^D=
Yes, DD, and IF Gropey Joe, the Hair Sniffe...];^D=<br /><br />Yes, DD, and IF Gropey Joe, the Hair Sniffer should get elected it ,will prove conclusively that a majority of the electorate is BRAIN DEAD.Franco Aragostahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11088635482766081825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-81638735678487566952020-06-26T05:14:58.759-05:002020-06-26T05:14:58.759-05:00BUMPER STICKERS:
Life is a Terminal Disease.
Liv...BUMPER STICKERS:<br /><br /><b>Life is a Terminal Disease.<br /><br />Living is Hazardous to You Health<br /><br />To Live is to Risk.</b><br /><br />~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /><br /><b><i>We're only here for a little stay.<br />Don't worry.<br />Don't hurry.<br />Just be sure to stop<br />___ and enjoy the flowers <br />______ along the way.</i></b>Franco Aragostahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11088635482766081825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-31728490417188010272020-06-26T02:51:48.811-05:002020-06-26T02:51:48.811-05:00So? You expect other diseases to take a holiday?
T...So? You expect other diseases to take a holiday?<br />The real story here is, haven't they been using the lockdown period to increase ICU capacity? That was the point of this whole exercise, surely??jezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14865247084509280406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4320479736034351430.post-12559585430535982002020-06-26T02:49:17.889-05:002020-06-26T02:49:17.889-05:00I think we're about to receive some useful dat...I think we're about to receive some useful data as we start to count the infections picked up at all the recent gatherings. I wonder if anyone was keeping track of % mask usage at each protest?jezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14865247084509280406noreply@blogger.com